India’s exports to Latin America which reached a record high of 17 billion dollars in 2021-22 is likely to show only moderate growth in 2022-23.
The April 2022 world economic outlook report of IMF says the Ukraine war and its impact on the world will bring down the GDP growth of South America to 2.3 % in 2022 from 7.2% in 2021.
Central America’s growth will be down to 4.8% from 11%.
Brazil’s GDP will decrease to 0.8% in 2022 from 4.6% in 2021
Mexico’s GDP will decline to 2% from 4.8%
Argentina(10.2%), Colombia(10.6%), Chile(11%) and Peru (13%) who had shown impressive double digit growth in 2021 will see 4%, 5.8%,1.5% and 3% respectively in 2022.
The only positive ( surprise !! ) increase in 2022 will be in the case of Venezuela which will see a 1.5% growth after GDP contraction of 1.5% in 2021. Venezuela had suffered consecutive GDP contraction from 2014 to 2021 with a cumulative total of 128.9% in the last 8 years. The contraction was a horrible 35% in 2019. It seems that the worst has passed and that Venezuela will only get better in the coming years with the rise in oil prices, the expected loosening of American sanctions, the stalemate in the political crisis, the loss of credibility of the pretender president Juan Guaido and the American realization of failure of their regime change operations.
Latin America had suffered a GDP contraction of 7% in 2020 due to the Covid crisis but had remarkably bounced back with a growth of 6.8% in 2021. The good news is that none of the 19 Latin American countries will suffer any GDP contraction in 2022. But the rise in global inflation and interest rates will impact Latin America adversely. This will be partly offset by the increase in commodity prices including crude oil will benefit the South American exporting countries.
Average inflation of Latin America will, for the first time in this decade, hit double digit at 11.2% in 2022. It was 9.8% in 2021. Of course, Venezuela will continue as the world champion of inflation with 500%, down from 1588% in 2021. The country has been suffering from hyperinflation since 2015 which reached an incredible peak of 65374% in 2018.
The other country which has chronical inflation in the last decade is Argentina whose inflation in 2021 was 48.4 %. It is projected to increase to 51.7% in 2022.
India’s GDP growth will decline marginally to 8.2% in 2022 from 8.9% in 2021 while the Chinese growth will be almost halved to 4.4% from 8.1%. The global GDP growth will be down to 3.6% in 2022 from 6.1% in 2021.
India’s exports to Latin America reached a record high of 17 billion dollars in the period April 2021 to February 2022, showing an annual increase of over 30 percent. The increase in exports in 2022-23 is likely to be modest, given the economic outlook of the region this year.
The April 2022 world economic outlook report of IMF says the Ukraine war and its impact on the world will bring down the GDP growth of South America to 2.3 % in 2022 from 7.2% in 2021.
Central America’s growth will be down to 4.8% from 11%.
Brazil’s GDP will decrease to 0.8% in 2022 from 4.6% in 2021
Mexico’s GDP will decline to 2% from 4.8%
Argentina(10.2%), Colombia(10.6%), Chile(11%) and Peru (13%) who had shown impressive double digit growth in 2021 will see 4%, 5.8%,1.5% and 3% respectively in 2022.
The only positive ( surprise !! ) increase in 2022 will be in the case of Venezuela which will see a 1.5% growth after GDP contraction of 1.5% in 2021. Venezuela had suffered consecutive GDP contraction from 2014 to 2021 with a cumulative total of 128.9% in the last 8 years. The contraction was a horrible 35% in 2019. It seems that the worst has passed and that Venezuela will only get better in the coming years with the rise in oil prices, the expected loosening of American sanctions, the stalemate in the political crisis, the loss of credibility of the pretender president Juan Guaido and the American realization of failure of their regime change operations.
Latin America had suffered a GDP contraction of 7% in 2020 due to the Covid crisis but had remarkably bounced back with a growth of 6.8% in 2021. The good news is that none of the 19 Latin American countries will suffer any GDP contraction in 2022. But the rise in global inflation and interest rates will impact Latin America adversely. This will be partly offset by the increase in commodity prices including crude oil will benefit the South American exporting countries.
Average inflation of Latin America will, for the first time in this decade, hit double digit at 11.2% in 2022. It was 9.8% in 2021. Of course, Venezuela will continue as the world champion of inflation with 500%, down from 1588% in 2021. The country has been suffering from hyperinflation since 2015 which reached an incredible peak of 65374% in 2018.
The other country which has chronical inflation in the last decade is Argentina whose inflation in 2021 was 48.4 %. It is projected to increase to 51.7% in 2022.
India’s GDP growth will decline marginally to 8.2% in 2022 from 8.9% in 2021 while the Chinese growth will be almost halved to 4.4% from 8.1%. The global GDP growth will be down to 3.6% in 2022 from 6.1% in 2021.
India’s exports to Latin America reached a record high of 17 billion dollars in the period April 2021 to February 2022, showing an annual increase of over 30 percent. The increase in exports in 2022-23 is likely to be modest, given the economic outlook of the region this year.
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