Thursday, June 20, 2019

Trump loses interest in Venezuela issue - good news

"Trump is giving up on regime change in Venezuela because it's complicated and he got bored.
Trump had always thought of Venezuela as "low-hanging fruit" on which he "could get a win and tout it as a major foreign policy victory.
He had viewed the prospect of a US-backed toppling of Maduro as an "easy win," at a time when other foreign policy initiatives had stalled.
He reportedly "chewed out" his national security adviser John Bolton and Latin America policy director Mauricio Claver-Carone as Maduro clung to power".
These are the reports of Washington Post.
Trump has moved on to other big-ticket issues such as Iran.
This explains the surprising silence on Venezuela issue these days in Washington where Bolton and company were screaming loud and threatening invasion in May leading up and after the failed coup attempt on 30 April.
The Washington silence is good news. There is no more threat of US military intervention. Atleast for the moment.. Latin Americans get a chance to resolve their problems by themselves instead of imposition under Monroe doctrine. This is the time to try diplomacy and support the negotiations initiated by Norway .

The statements by Guaido about meetings with US Southern Command and Pentagon had alarmed even the Latin American countries which had recognised him. Guaido is seen by these countries as immature, reckless and dangerous. The Brazilian Generals were outraged and they forced Bolsonaro government to cancel the presentation of credentials of Guaido's ambassador although Brazil has recognized Guaido as the legitimate President. 
So now there is stalemate.
But the bad news is that the Chavista regime of Maduro will continue to make Venezuelans suffer with mismanagement of the economy and impoverishing the people. The situation is going to get worse with the US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports.
Venezuela needs a political change to come out of the crisis. Maduro needs some external pressure besides internal political opposition. The Latin American countries need to put constructive and effective pressure on Maduro and make him hold elections soon. 

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