Sunday, August 08, 2021

Argentine writer Cesar Aira’s novel “The Divorce”

This is the first time I tried the work of Cesar Aira, the Argentine author. I enjoyed his way of provoking and stimulating the reader with surprise twisting of sub plots, cerebral analysis and delightful descriptions. He takes the readers for leisurely stroll in the streets of Buenos Aires stopping at cafes, bars and restaurants and letting us listen to the unending Argentine conversations, complaints and debates. 
 
Aira opens the story with the sentence,”When I left Providence (Rhode Island) in early December, the first fall of snow already lay buried beneath the second, and the second fall beneath the third”. That’s what one finds inside the novel; layer of one story buried under another.



 
Here is a sample of the way Aira describes an incident :
 
“El Gallego, the owner of the restaurant inserted the crank handle and started turning it, and the first fold of the awning opened out, a mass of water fell onto the pavement. It had rained overnight and the water had pooled in the canvas. Luckily it came down well away from the line of tables, and didn’t even splash us. Perhaps it wouldn’t have splashed us even if we had been closer, because it was as if every last drop had been absorbed by the victim: a young man with a bicycle. He wasn’t riding his bicycle but wheeling it; he had probably just got off and stepped up onto the pavement. The water doused him as if it had been expertly aimed. And it was no small amount. No shower of separate drops. It was a solid bucketful, gallons of it plunging with the force of gravity, right down onto him. He stood there transfixed by surprise, fright and wetness. Especially wetness, which overpowered all the rest. He was drenched, down to the last thread of his clothes, the last strand of his hair and the last cell of his skin. He seemed to go on getting wetter, in a process that transcended the temporality of the accident. The water ran over his face and down his arms (eddying around his watch); smooth waves of it passed under his T-shirt, swelling and rippling the fabric; it flowed down inside his Bermuda shorts, formed little translucent curtains like glass tubes around his calves, and bubbled coldly all over his sandalled feet. We stared in fascination, frozen like him. He was right there in front of our table. A moment passed, the briefest of moments, perhaps. Time is especially hard to measure in such circumstances. Perhaps no time passed at all, or only the infinitesimal fraction of a second required for the eye of the totally soaked young man to communicate with his brain. He didn’t have to look around because chance, as I said, had put him right there in front of our table; the same chance that had placed him beneath that cascade at just the right moment. He opened his mouth, parting the veils of water that were still flowing over his lips, and cried: ‘Leticia!’. The young video artist who was sitting with me, and had seen it all happen, suddenly found herself having to make a psychological readjustment. I know, because I was looking at her and could see the mental process reflected in her face. The protagonist of this episode had been a stranger, like every victim of a mishap witnessed in the street. It’s never Juan or Pedro but the guy who tripped or was mugged or got run over. But now, with the help of memory, she had to reassign the stranger to the category of people whose names she knew. This too was a very rapid operation. It happened in a flash, before all the water had fallen from the awning, or so it seemed: ‘Enrique!’ She leapt up, went straight over and hugged him, oblivious to getting wet”.
 
With such delightful descriptions, the book is entertaining and intriguing. But when I settled down to enjoy the scenic journey, the story stopped and ended abruptly with this: 
 
“Oblivious to the accident that he had caused, El Gallego kept turning the crank handle. Enrique, like an actor left in the middle of the stage when the play has finished, stood there dripping, motionless, stunned by the surprise. And with one hand, he went on holding the delicate machine at his side: that ‘little steel fairy’, the bicycle, from whose spinning stories are born”.
 
I felt like Enrique who ends up like “an actor left in the middle of the stage when the play has finished, stood there dripping, motionless, stunned by the surprise” and wonders “how could there have been an ending if the beginning was still going on?”
 
I am hooked to the way Aira spins stories on the pavements of cafes and bars of my beloved Buenos Aires, the Borgesian city. I am going to read his other books.

Roberto Bolano, the famous Chilean writer said, "If there is one contemporary writer who defies classification, it is César Aira, who has written one of the five best stories I can remember".

 

Thursday, August 05, 2021

Impressive increase in India's pharmaceutical exports to Latin America

India’s pharmaceutical exports to Latin America increased by 15% to 1108 million dollars in 2020-21 (April-March) from 962 m in 2019-20 (according to the latest data published by India’s Ministry of Commerce). This is against the backdrop of a decline of 3% in India’s total exports to the region.
 
Exports to Peru increased by a remarkable 86% to 128 m from 69 million in the year before.
 
Exports to Mexico jumped by 80% to 114 m from 64 m
 
Exports to Chile went up by 32% to 123 m from 93 m
 
Exports to Venezuela increased by 39% to 52 m from 39 m 
 
Exports to Dominican Republic were up by 37% to 54 m from 39 m
 
There were modest increases in exports to Brazil (317 m from 298 m), Colombia (68 m from 65 m) and Guatemala ( 48 m from 44 m).
 
In the last five years, the exports to Latin America have doubled from 651 m in 2016-17.
 
Pharmaceuticals are now the third largest export to the region after vehicles and chemicals.
 
Exports to USA
 
India’s pharma exports to USA went up by 13% to 7.2 billion dollars in 2020-21 from 6.3 bn in 2019-20. USA continues to be the # 1 market for India’s pharma exports which have gone up by four times in the last decade from 1.8 bn in 2010-11.



 
Global Exports
 
India’s global exports of pharma showed an even more impressive increase of 19% to 19.4 billion dollars in 2020-21 from 16.3 bn in 2019-20.
 
Pharmaceutical exports have been on a steady trajectory of increase in the last two decades moving up from just 945 million dollars in 2000-01 and 6.6 billion dollars in 2010-11.
 
Pharmaceutical exports were #3 in the ranking of India’s global exports after diesel (26.8 bn) and diamonds (26.1 bn), up from the 8th position in 2010-11 and 14th position in 2000-01.

But both diesel and diamond exports involve large imports of raw materials namely crude and raw diamonds which account for over 80% of the export value. In the case of Pharma, imports of raw materials are about 32 % of total requirements while the rest is produced in India itself. So the absolute value derived from Pharma exports is much more than from the exports of diesel and diamonds. 
 
It is time for the government of India to recognize this growing importance of pharma exports and formulate long term strategies for further growth. 

Pharma is one of the few export items in which India is ahead of China with competitive strength and solid reputation. China's exports in 2020 were 13 billion dollars. China ranked 13th, behind India's 11th position in global Pharma exports. However, China is the world's largest supplier of Pharma raw materials.

India has been recognized as a  “Pharmacy of the Global South”, with its pharmaceutical industry ranking third largest in the world in terms of medicines produced by volume. India accounts for 20% of global generic medicine exports by volume and supplies over 50% of global demand for vaccines. 

Saturday, July 03, 2021

Latin America continues to be a large market for India’s exports

India’s exports were 12.74 billion dollars in 2020-21 (April-March), according to the figures just released by the Commerce Ministry of India. The exports to the region have declined marginally by 3.3% from 13.18 billion in 2019-20. This is not bad in view of the fact that India’s total global exports have declined by 7% from 313 bn to 291 bn in the same period. 

 



Brazil continued as the # 1 destination of India’s exports to the region, with 4.25 billion dollars.

 

The other major destinations were: 

Mexico 3.08 billion dollars 

Colombia 865 million

Chile 805 million 

Peru 765 m 

Argentina 688 m 

Venezuela 557 m 

 

Exports to Mercosur was 5199 million, Pacific Alliance 5522 m and CAFTA (Central America + DR) 1143 m 

 

Major exports

 

Vehicles     2608 million dollars

Chemicals 2534 m

Pharma     1196

Machinery 1152

Diesel         1034

Textiles     704

Cotton.     417

Plastics.    421

Iron and steel 599

Aluminium products 393

Rubber products 254

 

Car exports

Latin America accounted for 30.5% ( 1.3 bn) of India’s global car exports of 4.3 bn dollars. Mexico was the largest global market for Indian cars with 860 m.  US was second with 512 million.

Other major destinations: Chile 201 m and Peru 86 m

 

Motorcycles

India was the second largest supplier of motorcycles to Latin America with 577 million dollars. This is 28% of India’s global exports of 2 bn.

Major destinations were Colombia 190 million dollars,  Mexico 90 m, Guatemala 84 m and Peru 53 m. Colombia was the third largest global market for Indian motorcycles after Nigeria and Nepal. Some years back Colombia was the # 1 destination. Indian brands are market leaders in Colombia and Guatemala. Hero Motors has invested 80 million dollars in a production plant in Cali, Colombia.

 

Pharmaceuticals

India is the fifth largest supplier of pharmaceuticals to Latin America. Major destination of India’s pharma exports:  Brazil 317 million dollars, Peru 128 m, Chile 123 m, Mexico 114 m, Colombia 68 m, Dominican Republic 54 m, Venezuela 51 m, Guatemala 48 m, Bolivia 29 m and Ecuador 28 m.

 

India’s exports to Latin American countries in comparison to neighbors and traditional trading partners

 

India’s exports to some of the distant Latin American countries are more than the exports to neighboring countries or traditional trade partners with same or more population. This is a trend of the last several years.

 

Examples:

 

- 209 million dollars to Dominican Republic (population 11 million) more than the 169 m to Cambodia (population- 16 m)

-331 m to Guatemala ( pop-11 m)  vs 225 m to Kazakstan (pop- 19 m)

-865 m to Colombia (pop 50 m) more than the exports of 779 m to the neighboring Myanmar (pop 53 m)

-4.24 bn to Brazil and 3 bn to Mexico vs  exports to Russia (2.6 bn), Nigeria (3.1 bn), Egypt (2.2 bn), and Canada (2.9 bn)

 

India exported more motorcycles (190 million) to Colombia than to neighboring markets such as Bangladesh (98 m). 

 

India’s car exports to Chile at 201 million dollars are more than the exports to Nepal (85 m), Bangladesh (41 m), Sri Lanka (3 m) and Myanmar (4 m).

 

 

 

Imports

Major Latin American suppliers were: Brazil 3 bn, Mexico 2.85 billion, Argentina 2.63 bn, Peru 1.52 bn, Colombia 1.4 bn, Chile 1.18 bn, Bolivia 1.16 bn and Venezuela 714 m

 

Venezuela used to be the major source of imports in the region for the last fifteen years with supply of large volumes of crude oil. Due to the US sanctions, Venezuelan oil supply to India has come down drastically from its peak of around 10 billion dollars.

 

Main import items 

 

Crude oil  5047 million dollars

Gold.         4055 m

Veg oil.     2443

Raw Sugar 612

Copper.    479

Machinery 378

Chemicals 288

Wood        349

Plastics.     162

Fruits& veg 110 m

 

Sources of crude oil imports: Mexico 1974 m, Brazil 933 m, Colombia 944 m, Venezuela 644 m ( down from 6.03 billion dollars last year), Ecuador 234 m and Cuba 67 m

 

Gold import sourcing: Peru 1500 million dollars, Bolivia 1156 m, Colombia 378 m, Brazil 270 m, Dom Republic 234 m, Mexico 192 m and Argentina 324 m.

 

Argentina was the main Latin American supplier of edible oil with 2.19 billion dollars, followed by Brazil 256 m. 

 

 

Trade 2020-21

 

 

Country

exports

imports

Total trade

Brazil

4245

3016

7261

Mexico

3087

2846

6933

Argentina

688

2627

3315

Peru

765

1521

2286

Colombia

865

1404

2269

Chile

805

671

1476

Venezuela

557

714

1271

Bolivia

94

1159

1253

Ecuador

208

333

541

Dom Republic

209

257

466

Panama

152

33

185

Guatemala

331

21

352

Uruguay

105

164

269

Honduras

163

13

176

Costa Rica

114

47

161

Paraguay

161

16

177

El Salvador

84

4

88

Nicaragua

90

6

96

Cuba

20

69

89

Total 

12743

14921

27664

 

 

Decade of trade from 2010-11 to 2019-20

 

India’s exports had increased from 10.04 billion dollars in the beginning of the decade to 13.7 bn in 2014-15. But the Latin American recession and economic difficulties caused a dip in India’s exports in 2015-16. Since then the exports have increased steadily until the covid crisis.

 

India’s imports reached a peak of 31.38 billion dollars in 2012-13 due to the high crude oil prices and large volume of India’s imports from Venezuela. But since then, the oil prices have come down and due to US sanctions, the volume of imports from Venezuela has also reduced drastically. 

 

The annual India-Latin America trade had reached a peak of 44.08 billion dollars in 2013-14 due to the high oil prices and large crude imports from Venezuela.

 

Year

exports

1mports

Total trade

2020-21

12.74

14.92

27.66

2019-20

13.18

20.67

33.85

2018-19

13.16

25.7

38.89

2017-18

12.1

24.4

36.45

2016-17

10.4

19.6

30

2015-16

10

19.7

29.7

2014-15

13.7

29.3

43

2013-14

12.77

31.31

44.08

2012-13

12.48

31.38

43.86

2011-12

11.33

18.42

29.75

2010-11

10.04

14.01

24.05

 

 

 

Market

 

Latin America, the region of 19 countries, has a total population of 620 million and GDP of 5.4 Trilion dollars. 

 

The region which had a historic GDP contraction of 7.7% in 2020 is forecast to rebound with a growth of 3.7% in 2021. 


The region's external trade declined by 8.6% in 2020. Latin America's imports were 904 billion dollars (down from 1006 bn in 2019) and exports 935 bn in 2020, declining from 1007 bn in 2019. 

 

There is potential for India to increase its exports to about 20 billion dollars in the next five years if the Indian exporters and government intensify their export promotion seriously and systematically. At this time of austerity, Latin Americans look for affordable products from less expensive sources. Although China fits this expectation, the Latin Americans seek to reduce their overdependence on China with which there is growing trust deficit especially after the Corona virus which originated from Wuhan.

 

 

Thursday, June 10, 2021

El Salvador's experiment with Bitcoin

 El Salvador has become the first country in the world to adopt bitcoin as legal currency

The Congress on Wednesday has approved President Nayib Bukele’s proposal to embrace the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin's use as legal tender will begin in 90 days, with the bitcoin-dollar exchange rate set by the market.

Under the law, bitcoin must be accepted by firms, including MacDonalds, when offered as payment for goods and services. Exemption is given to businesses which have no access to bitcoin technology. The government will act as a backstop for entities that aren’t willing to take on the risk of a volatile cryptocurrency. Even tax payments can be paid in the cryptocurrency. 
Even if a merchant doesn’t want to take the risk of convertibility, he has to accept bitcoin because it’s a mandated currency.  He can ask the government to exchange his bitcoin to dollars immediately or use the market for conversion.  




The government is guaranteeing convertibility to dollars at the time of transaction through a $150 million trust created at the country's development bank BANDESAL. The Development Bank’s trust fund would sell some of the bitcoin it receives for dollars to replenish the fund.
At this moment, the government and Central Bank do not currently hold any bitcoin.
Bukele has touted the use of bitcoin for its potential to help Salvadorans living abroad to send remittances back home, while saying the U.S. dollar will also continue as legal tender. In practice, El Salvador does not have its own currency.

El Salvador relies heavily on money sent back from workers abroad. Remittances by Salvadoreans mainly in US are about $6 billion or around a fifth of GDP, one of the highest ratios in the world.

The cryptocurrency offers, in theory, a quick and cheap way to send money across borders without relying on remittance firms typically used for such transactions. 

The government will promote training and mechanisms to allow access to bitcoin transactions.
The El Salvador announcement has pushed up the value of bitcoin by 6% to $35,200.

Bukele has instructed state-owned geothermal electric firm LaGeo to develop a plan to offer bitcoin mining facilities using renewable energy from the country's volcanoes.

He has offered citizenship to people who showed evidence they had invested in at least three bitcoins.

Outside the United States, countries with the highest crypto production and trading volumes are all developing nations including China, Colombia and India. The bitcoin experiment of El Salvador will be watched by the enthusiasts of the crypto currency from around the world. 

There are challenges of volatility of bitcoin as well as the poor internet infrastructure and usage in the country.


El Salvador, the smallest country (in area) in Central America with 6.5 million people, has huge problems. Besides poverty and other developmental issues the country is the victim of violence and crime committed mostly by the notorious gangs. The main issue is the ongoing gang violence and crime. The country has become notorious with one of the highest murder rates in the world. Mara Salvatrucha, popularly known as MS-13 and the Barrio 18 (18thstreet gang) are the two dominant gangs which hold the country to ransom with killings, crimes and drug trafficking. The rivalry between these two became so violent at one stage in 2012, the government intervened and brokered a ceasefire between MS 13 and the Barrio 18. In order to bring the two sides to the negotiating table, the government relaxed conditions in the prisons in which the members of the two gangs were held. Following this peace deal, the murder rate had dropped immediately. But this truce broke down in 2014 and crime has gone up again.

It is because of the violence in the country that many are fleeing, trying to enter US and seeking asylum. 

The second major problem of El Salvador is the rampant corruption. Last week, the former first lady Ana Ligia de Saca, who was found guilty of illicit enrichment, was sentenced to 10 years in prison and ordered to repay $17.6 million to the state.
Her husband, former President Tony Saca, is already serving a 10-year sentence since September 2018. The court had asked him to return to the state 260 million dollars siphoned by him. Lot of money for the small country.
Ana Ligia de Saca's brother Oscar Edgardo Sol Mixco had received a similar sentences of jail and fine earlier on corruption charges.
While Saca is the first Salvadorean president to be jailed for corruption, both his predecessor and his successor in office have also been accused of corruption
His predecessor, Francisco Flores, was accused of diverting a $15m-donation given to his government by Taiwan to help victims of the earthquakes which hit El Salvador in 2001. Mr Flores died in 2016 while under house arrest awaiting trial.

Mauricio Funes, successor to Saca has been accused of using public funds for his personal use. He fled to Nicaragua where he has got asylum since two years ago.Some of the previous presidents of the country have been accused and convicted of massive corruption.

The current President Nayeb Bukele is young and tech savvy. He is using bitcoin as part of his adventurous new agenda and experiment.

The country needs solutions urgently for the crime, corruption and poverty more than the bitcoin experiment.