India’s exports to Latin America at 13.2 billion dollars in 2019-20, the highest in the last five years

India’s exports reached 13.2 billion dollars in 2019-20 (April-March) from 10 billion in 2015-16, according to the figures just released by the Commerce Ministry of India.

Brazil came back this year to claim its position as the # 1 destination of India’s exports to the region, with 3.97 billion dollars, overtaking Mexico.

The other major destinations were: 

Mexico 3.62 billion dollars, 

Colombia 1.04 billion, 

Chile 793 million, 

Peru 764 m 

Argentina 763 m. 

Surprisingy, exports to Venezuela doubled to 340 m doubling from 165 m in 2018-19

Exports to Mercosur was 5005 million, Pacific Alliance 6223 m, CAFTA (Central America + DR) 1200 m and others 754 m

Major exports

Vehicles     3231 million dollars

Chemicals 2576 

Machinery 1426

Textiles     1058

Diesel         1049

Pharma     962

Cotton.     359

Plastics.    386

Iron and steel 394

Aluminium products 342

Rubberproducts 264

Car exports

Latin America accounted for 28% of India’s global car exports of 6.7 bn dollars. Mexico was the second largest global market for Indian cars after US.

Other major destinations: Chile 178 m, Peru 139 m, Paraguay 44m,  Bolivia 42 m, Colombia 37 m and Guatemala 31 m.

Motorcycles

India was the second largest supplier of motorcycles to Latin America with 458 million dollars. This is 22% of India’s global exports of 2.1 bn.

Major destinations were Colombia 228 million dollars,  Mexico 69 m, Guatemala 54 m and Peru 20 m. Colombia was the second largest global market for Indian motorcycles after Nigeria. Indian brands are market leaders in Colombia and Guatemala. Hero Motors has invested 80 million dollars in a production plant in Cali, Colombia.

Pharmaceuticals

India is the fifth largest supplier of pharmaceuticals to Latin America. Major destination of India’s pharma exports:  Brazil 297 million dollars, Chile 93 m, Peru 69 m, Colombia 65 m, Mexico 64 m, Guatemala 44 m, Venezuela 39 m, Dominican Republic 39 m and Ecuador 30 m.

India’s exports to Latin American countries in comparison to neighbours and traditional trading partners

India’s exports to some of the distant Latin American countries were more than the exports to neighbouring countries or traditional trade partners with same or more population.

Examples:

- 213 million dollars to the Dominican Republic (population 11 million) vs 188 m to Cambodia (population- 16 m)

-253 m to Ecuador ( pop-18 m)  vs 202 m to Kazhakstan (pop- 19 m)

-185 m to Honduras (pop 10 m) vs 180 m to Uzbekistan (pop 33 m)

-1043 m to Colombia (pop 50 m) more than the exports of 933 m to the neighbouring Myanmar (pop 53 m)

-3.97 bn to Brazil and 3.6 bn to Mexico vs  exports to Russia (3.02 bn), Nigeria (3.61 bn), Egypt (2.5 bn), and Canada (2.85 bn)

India exported more motorcycles (228 million) to Colombia than to neighbouring markets such as Sri Lanka (176 m), Nepal (198 m) and Bangladesh (156 m). 

India’s car exports to Chile at 178 million dollars are more than the exports to Nepal (107 m), Bangladesh (72 m), Sri Lanka (40 m) and Myanmar (15 m).

Service Exports

TCS had an annual turnover of 700 million dollars in 2019 in Latin America. This includes services to local clients as well as to those in North America and Europe. TCS employs 17560 Latin American staff in the region. 

The annual turnover of all the two dozen Indian IT, BPO and KPO firms in Latin America should be around 1.5 billion dollars.

Indian manufacturing companies in Latin America

UPL has an annual turnover of over 2 billion dollars with its plants making agrochemicals and development of new seed varieties in Brazil, Argentina and Colombia. UPL, the largest Indian agrochemical firm, has a larger business turnover in Brazil (1.2 billion dollars) than its business in India.

Aditya Birla’s group company Novellis has Aluminium and carbon black plants in Brazil with an annual turnover of 2 billion dollars.

Mothersons Group, the autoparts major with a worldwide revenue of 11 billion dollars has over a dozen plants in Mexico and Brazil generating 9.2 % of its global revenue, which amounts to about a billion dollars.

There are a number of other Indian companies operating in the region in energy, pharma, tyres and other sectors. 

The annual revenue of the Indian manufacturing companies in Latin America should be around 6 billion dollars. 

Imports

As in the past two decades, Venezuela continued to be the main sources of imports in the region with 6.06 billion dollars. Other main sources: Mexico 4.3 billion, Brazil 3.07 bn, Argentina 2.33 bn, Peru 1.58 bn, Chile 1.18 bn, Bolivia 846 m and Colombia 811 m.

Main import items

Crude oil  11009 million dollars

Gold.         3743

Veg oil.     2188

Copper.    1079

Machinery 612

Chemicals 426

Wood        349

Iron&steel 332

Raw Sugar 249

Plastics.     162

Fruits& veg 158

Pharma.     86

Sources of crude oil imports: Venezuela 6.03 billion dollars, Mexico 3.3 bn, Brazil 1.1 bn, Colombia 290 m and Ecuador 254 m.

Gold import sourcing: Peru 1424 million dollars, Bolivia 843 m, Colombia 420 m, Brazil 369 m, Dom Republic 339 m and Argentina 190 m.

Argentina was the second largest (overtaking Malaysia) source of edible oil in the world with 1.95 billion dollars after Indonesia. 

Trade 2019-20

Country	exports	imports	Total trade
Mexico	3623	4297	7920
Brazil	3967	3072	7039
Venezuela	340	6057	6397
Argentina	763	2327	3090
Peru	764	1575	2339
Chile	793	1176	1969
Colombia	1043	811	1854
Bolivia	113	846	959
Ecuador	253	362	615
Dom Republic	213	361	574
Panama	239	76	315
Guatemala	291	23	314
Uruguay	148	57	205
Honduras	185	19	204
Costa Rica	127	49	176
Paraguay	127	25	152
El Salvador	79	3	82
Nicaragua	66	4	70
Cuba	48	4	52
Total	13182	20669	33851

Decade of trade from 2010-11 to 2019-20

India’s exports had increased from 10.04 billion dollars in the beginning of the decade to 13.7 bn in 2014-15. But the Latin American recession and economic difficulties caused a dip in India’s exports in 2015-16. Since then the exports have increased steadily to 13.18 bn in 2019-20.

India’s exports reached a peak of 31.38 billion dollars in 2012-13 due to the high crude oil prices and large volume of India’s imports from Venezuela. But since then, the oil prices have come down and due to US sanctions, the volume of imports from Venezuela has also reduced. Reliance, the main importer of Venezuelan oil had suspended Venezuelan oil imports in the second quarter of 2020. But it has resumed imports in July 2020.

The annual India-Latin America trade had reached a peak of 44.08 billion dollars in 2013-14 due to the high oil prices and large crude imports from Venezuela.

Year	exports	imports	Total trade
2019-20	13.18	20.67	33.85
2018-19	13.16	25.7	38.89
2017-18	12.1	24.4	36.45
2016-17	10.4	19.6	30
2015-16	10	19.7	29.7
2014-15	13.7	29.3	43
2013-14	12.77	31.31	44.08
2012-13	12.48	31.38	43.86
2011-12	11.33	18.42	29.75
2010-11	10.04	14.01	24.05

Market

Latin America, the region of 19 countries, has a total population of 620 million and GDP of 5.6 Trilion dollars. The region’s imports were 1.07 trillion dollars and exports 1.06 tn in 2019. 
Mexico was the top trader with imports of 467 bn and exports of 472 bn. 
Brazil's imports were 177 bn and exports 223 bn. 
Surprisingly, Chile is the third largest trader with imports of 65 bn and exports of 64 bn. Argentina's imports were 65 bn and exports 49 bn
Peru imports 42 bn and exports 45 bn
Colombia imports 40 bn and exports 42 bn. 

There is potential for India to increase its exports to about 20 billion dollars in the next five years if the Indian exporters and government intensify their export promotion seriously and systematically. Although the region’s imports will decrease by over 10% due to the 9.1% GDP contraction forecast for 2020, India can certainly increase its share in the region’s imports. 

For example, India can double its pharma exports to 2 billion to Latin America whose annual global imports are around 25 billion dollars. Motorcycle demand is going up in the region, consequent to the need for social distancing after the corona pandemic. This provides an opportunity to take India’s exports to a billion soon.

At this time of austerity, Latin Americans look for affordable products from less expensive sources. Although China fits this expectation, the Latin Americans seek to reduce their overdependence on China with which there is growing trust deficit especially after the Corona virus which originated from Wuhan.

The Latin Americans appreciate the fact that India was the seventh largest destination for Latin America's global exports in 2019 and the third largest in 2018. India is the #1 market for their exports of vegetable oil, #3 for crude oil and #4 for gold. They perceive India as a large growing and transparent market and as the trusted and respected land of yoga, meditation and Gurus at this stressful time of the Wuhan virus.

Corona wins the Presidential elections of Dominican Republic

  

Yes. Corona is the last name of the winner of the presidential elections of Dominican Republic held on 5 July. Full name is Luis Rodolfo Abinader Corona.  But he is popularly called as Abinader or Luis Abinader. The last part of the name ‘Corona’ comes from his mother’s side. He had tested positive for the virus on 11 June and spent most of the crucial campaign time  in quarantine. His wife also had also tested positive at the same time.

Abinader’s  first challenge as President is the Corona virus pandemic.  The Dominican Republic (DR) is one of the worst-affected countries in the Caribbean, with more than 38,000 confirmed cases and over 800 deaths. The election was postponed from May because of the virus. Understandably, the voters turnout was less and it was only 49.6%. However, the voters were smart enough to avoid a second round by giving more than 50% to the winner in the first round itself.

 Abinader, who is from the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM), won with 53% vote. Gonzalo Castillo, the candidate  of the ruling Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) got  37.7%.  PLD has governed for the last sixteen years, having won four consecutive elections since 2004. Castillo was the public works and communications Minister in the outgoing government. Former President Leonel Fernández, who left the ruling party and ran for the presidency as a member of the new People's Force party got just 8.8% of the votes.

But the change of party does not mean any drastic change in the direction or major policies of the country. Abinader’s PRM Party is also centre-left as the outgoing PLD. Abinader, aged 52, is pragmatic and balanced in his politics and avoids controversies and extremes. He is an economist with Masters degrees from US universities. He is a businessman who has never held elected office, although he was the losing candidate in the 2016 elections. He is of Lebanese origin and his business group hasinterests in hotels and cement besides other sectors. His father was a senator and presidential candidate three times in the eighties and nineties.

Incumbent President Danilo Medina was ineligible to stand for re-election, having served two consecutive terms since 2012. But Mr Medina tried a maneuver to get a third term, not allowed under the constituition. It is rumored that the US Secretary of State Pompeo called and advised Medina strongly to desist. It is believed that Leonel Fernandez was behind this US string pulling. He was the one who promoted the candidature of Medina in 2012, considering him as a protégé. But the disciple tried to outsmart the mentor and earned the wrath. There are allegations of irregularities in the primaries held in PLD which made Fernandez to quit the party and form a new one. These developments combined with corruption charges against the government were the main reasons for the loss of the ruling party. The voters chose to give the opposition a chance. 

   

The economy of Dominican Republic with a population of 10.6 million has done very well in the 16 years of the PLD rule from 2004. The cumulative GDP growth is 96.8% meaning an average annual growth of 6%. This is among the highest in the Latin American and Caribbean region. DR’s growth rate of 4.8% in 2019 and 7% in 2018 were the highest among the 19 Latin American countries. The inflation has been low at 2.5% in 2019 and 1.2% in 2018. The other macroeconomic fundamentals of the country are also sound and healthy. However, the country will face its first GDP contraction in 2020, like all the countries of the region. Tourism, a major foreign exchange earner, is being hit hard by the pandemic. Revival of the tourist industry will be a crucial challenge for the new President.

Dominican Republic is better known in India because of its popular and charismatic ambassador Hans Dannenberg Castellanos. He opened the embassy in 2005 and has been here for the last fifteen years. Initially he struggled to get Indian business interested in the distant and unknown Caribbean island nation. But the proactive ambassador promoted his country by organizing numerous visits of business delegations, reaching out to chambers of commerce across India and offering fast track business visas. He arranged a successful visit of President Leonel Fernandez in 2010 which opened the eyes of the Indians to the potential for business with the DR. Thanks to his relentless campaign, the exports of DR to India has reached 567 million dollars in 2018-19 (April-March) from an insignificant 2.7 million dollars in 2004-5. Today, India is the third largest destination of DR’s global exports after US and Haiti. In fact, India is the largest market for DR’s number one export, gold. 

India is also indebted to Ambassador Castellanos for opening DR’s market for Indian business. India’s exports have increased from 24.7 million in 2004-5 to 215 million dollars in 2018-19. Today, India's exports are more to this distant (14000 km) island country than its exports of 196 million to the neighbouring (3500 km) market of Cambodia and 143 million to Kazhakstan, just 1600 km away with a population almost double that of DR. Pharmaceuticals and vehicles are the main exports of India to DR.

Indo-Dominican Republic  trade has gone up from a mere 24.7 million dollars in 2004-5 to an impressive 782 million in 2018-19 and is all set to hit a billion dollars, the target of Ambassador Castellanos.

The only unfinished agenda of Ambassador Castellanos is to get India to open an embassy in Santo Domingo. He has been trying so hard for this at all levels. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs has promised him that Dominican Republic would figure in the top of the list of new embassies to be opened in Latin America in the not too distant future. 

Ambassador Castellanos’s current priority is to organize visit of his new President to India as soon as the Corona travel restrictions are lifted. He is also keen to put Dominican Republic in the itinerary of the Indian Prime Minister or President to Latin America during their next visit to the region.

With his long stay, Ambassador Castellanos has become the Dean of the Diplomatic Corps in Delhi. He is considered as a Guru by new incoming ambassadors who seek his expertise in dealing with the intricacies of Indian bureaucracy, business sector and visa seekers. He is known in the cocktail circuit for his Latino liveliness, inimitable sense of humour and incredible imitation of Indian English accents. 

The article has been published in Financial Express of 9 July
https://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/corona-wins-the-presidential-elections-of-dominican-republic/2018230/

Born to die – book by Colombian writer Alonso Salazar

Colombia had four kinds of violence: 

Political violence - The conflict between conservatives and liberals at the national level went out of control and plunged the country into a deadly violence lasting for ten years in the period 1948-58.  Colombians call this simply as the period of  ‘La Violencia” ( the violence). It was one of the darkest chapters in the history of the country. This was the starting point for the culture of violence in the next seven decades.

Drug violence - from the seventies to the nineties when drug cartels indulged in an orgy of violence with bombings, assassinations and kidnappings.

Guerilla violence - from the armed movements of FARC, M-19 and EPL groups to overthrow the government. They started with genuine political principles for social justice and utopia but deteriorated into criminal activities in most cases. 

Neighbourhood violence - localized violence in poor barrios (neighbourhoods) of the cities where street gangs got into crimes. They mostly terrorized their own neighbourhood.

Alonso Salazar’s book is about the last category of violence in the poor barrios of the city of Medellin. The book has a series of poignant stories of how adolescents took to crime and violence. The stories are narrated by gangsters, mothers, friends, the corner shop owners and the priests. There are confessions of criminals, witnesses and victims.  There is vivid description of the origin, evolution, manifestation and consequences of violence. 

The poor kids in the marginalized areas of Medellin city born into dysfunctional families had no educational and employment opportunities except to pursue criminal activities to earn a living. Some boys were forced into it by peer pressure. When the streets were full with criminal characters it was impossible for innocent boys to avoid and escape from the gangs. In a few cases, boys turned to crimes after traumatized by seeing the brutal killing of their families and friends. These boys from the barrios were small timers with very limited resources and reach. They were known as Chichipatos (small-time scum) and cochinos (pigs). They became sicarios (contract killers), mules and errand boys for paramilitary groups, drug cartels and some times for political and business groups too. 

The boys of crime enjoyed the reputation of being feared and becoming notorious. Gangs from different barrios killed each other for territorial control, business deals and revenge. Some kids started enjoying their killing jobs and became monsters. The boys found the violence as their own anaesthesia and lost feelings. Seventy per cent of the people who died violent deaths in the city of Medellín were in the age group between 14 and 20.

They took to wearing fancy clothes, impressed their girlfriends with gifts and even helping the families and the barrios with their money. They sang  and danced salsa and valleanato in  all-night street parties. The young criminals knew that their life could end any time. So they took life fatalistically and were prepared to die singing Willy Colon’s salsa song

Pronto llegará el día de mi suerte,
la esperanza de mi muerte seguro que mi suerte cambiará 

My lucky day will be here soon as I wait for my death
I’m certain my luck will change too 

The gangs held elaborate funeral and burial ceremonies of drinking, music and dance for colleagues who were killed. Some of the gang leaders gave instructions when they were still alive, on how they wanted their burial ceremonies and what songs they wanted to be played in their funeral. 

The young criminals had faith only in the virgin Mary whose blessings they sought for their protection and success of their jobs. The people of the barrios had no faith in the police who themselves were involved in extortion and in illegal selling of weapons to the gangs. They feared jail more than death. There was humiliation of rape and more violence within the jails. Those with money had safety and could bribe the judges to get out before completing the term.   

The book does not have a conventional end of the story nor does it have any climax . The author Alonso Salazar has chosen a hybrid form of storytelling combining fictional characters with documentary-style comments. At the end, he has pleaded for action to stop the violence.Salazar is also a journalist, social activist and political leader besides being a writer. He was actively involved in community work in the violent neighourhoods. So what he has written is what he saw with his own eyes.

Salazar was elected as Mayor of Medellin city in the period 2008-11 and had brought down crime and improved the lives of the poor. Medellin city was lucky to have more visionary mayors and political leaders like him in the last three decades. He had earlier worked as advisor to Mayor Sergio Fajardo (in the period 2003-7), considered as one of the architects of the transformation of the city which was known as a narco crime and murder capital of the world during the days of Pablo Escobar. 

In the last two decades, the city has managed to transform and reinvent itself into a safer and more inclusive and prosperous place. Crime and poverty have decreased dramatically. It has one of the best quality of life among the Latin American cities. The city has built a metro cable transport through the poor barrios reaching out to them, facilitating their travel and importantly making them feel as part of the society with dignity and honour. There are numerous parks, libraries and city squares to provide a sense of ownership and inclusion in the city’s public spaces. With the extensive use of IT, the city has become a smart city and the Silicon Valley of the Andean region. Medellin has now become an international benchmark for urban transformation and social innovation. The city of more than two million inhabitants has lived upto its reputation even during this covid19 crisis time by containing infection and dealing with the crisis through its smart IT network and solutions.

There are a number of Indian IT companies and professionals in Medellin.There is a Gandhi Peace Foundation in the city run by Harivardhan Shah, who has collaborated with the City and NGOs in spreading the message of Gandhi on non-violence and peace. My blog https://latinamericanaffairs.blogspot.com/search?q=medellin

In Latin America, Colombia has suffered the worst from violence with several hundred thousand killings and displacement of millions in the last seven decades. At one time, the American media tried to stigmatise the country as a ‘failed state’. Now Colombia has decisively and irreversibly put an end to the ignominious chapter of violence with the 2016 peace deal signed with FARC. Although, a few FARC rebels, the ELN group and some drug cartels continue with some violent activities, these are likely to be contained in the coming years. The country will certainly not go back to its bad old days of Pablo Escobar or loss of the control of almost half the territory to FARC guerillas. However, cocaine supply to US will continue as long as millions of US consumers continue to pay billions of dollars for the drugs. It is a demand driven business from US. The drug war should be fought within US to stop consumption. This is the only solution.

While Medellin has come out of its tragic past dramatically, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras as well as Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo cities still continue to suffer from crime and violence. There are any number of books and films about the gruesome violence in these.

The secret of success of the Medellin Miracle is the fact that it was a collective project of the city’s government, academics, professionals, businesspeople and civic leaders. They came together around a shared vision to invigorate the city’s poorest neighborhoods through science, technology, innovation and culture. They studied and learnt from the best practices of other cities such as Barcelona and Singapore. The transformation of Medellin is called as “Social Urbanism”. It is a role model for other Latin American as well as Indian cities which are struggling with large slums of poverty and marginalization.

This English version of this book published by Penguin (SEA) is available for sale only in South East Asia for the time being. However, the original Spanish edition published in 1990 is available in Kindle store for Indian readers.

The English translation of this book “No nacimos pa’ Semilla”, has been done by Sharmila Bhushan from Gurgaon. She has done an excellent job of translating the esoteric slangs and local jargon used in the Colombian crime world. 

The choice of an Indian translator for a Colombian book by the prestigious publishing house Penguin (SEA) is a recognition of and testimony to the translation talents of Indian professionals.

Spanish has overtaken French as the most popular foreign language in India. Spanish is taught in many schools, universities, management and technical institutes, besides language academies. The increasing professional pool of Spanish language translators and interpreters helps India's business with the 18 Latin American countries which speak Spanish, besides Spain.

Here is the link to the book https://penguin.sg/book/born-to-die/