Argentine voters have made smart choices in the elections of 21 October

 Argentine voters have made smart choices in the elections of 21 October
 
Before the elections on 21 October, there was a hype by the anti-left western media that Argentina was going have its own Bolsonaro/Trump by electing Javier Milei, the far right radical anti-establishment candidate as President. But the Argentine voters proved to be smarter. They shocked Javier Milei and his choreographers by humbling him into the second position with 30% votes. Sergio Massa, the leftist candidate of the ruling coalition came first with 37% votes. The centre-right candidate Patricia Bullrich came third with 24%, She is out of contention for the second round of elections to be held on 19 November between Massa and Milei.
 

Argentina is going through yet another cycle of crisis with three digit (138%) inflation, steep currency depreciation, increased poverty and unemployment, shortage of foreign exchange reserves and huge unbearable burden of external debt. Part of the blame lies with the leftist Peronist governments in power for most part of the last two decades.  So, the voters elected the centre-right Mauricio Macri as President in 2015. However, his government also failed to arrest the deterioration of the economy. Macri made it worse by sinking the country in a huge debt trap by taking a 43 billion dollars IMF loan towards the end of his term. These billions were not used for any productive or revenue generating projects. The money simply disappeared, leaving the country with a severe burden of debt. During the Peronist rule between 2003 and 2014 the country was virtually debt free since the Wall Street cartels and their Washington DC accomplices kept Argentina isolated from the international capital markets. They wanted to punish Argentina for its audacious debt structuring on its own in 2002 ignoring IMF, the US Treasury Department and the Wall Street. President Nestor Kirchner pulled off a financial coup by making the creditors (over 93%) agree to receive 30 cents to a dollar. This way he reduced the debt from 90 billion to 30 billion dollars. He and his wife Cristina Fernandez, who succeeded him as President, refused to be blackmailed by the American vulture funds who did not accept the debt restructuring formula and insisted on full payments. So the Wall Street mafia blockaded Argentina from the western financial capital markets. This was a blessing in disguise. Argentina remained free from external debt since there was no one to extend credit except for the Chinese who came to the rescue occasionally with some credit and financial swaps. Argentina struggled but remained free from the curse of external debt, which had caused many crises in the past. But this situation was changed by the pro-US Macri who made a deal with the vulture funds and took the disastrous step of taking in 43 billion loan from IMF. This was irresponsible and unpardonable. This IMF debt of 43 billion dollars has become an unbearable burden for the country which has severe shortage of foreign exchange reserves. This has aggravated the economic crisis of the country. This is the reason why the voters punished Macri and defeated him in the 2019 elections when he sought reelection. His candidate Bullrich was given the same punishment in the 2023 elections. The electors are not yet ready to forgive the grave sin of Macri.
 
Obviously, the country needs a change from the leftist Peronists who have failed in economic management and the rightists who worsened the crisis by adding the the debt burden. It was in this context that the situation was ripe for an outsider. Javier Milei, the Libertarian candidate, was the natural choice at this time of anti-incumbency. Milei, a professional economist, promised a shock treatment and radical free-market reforms. His angry attacks against the political caste which got the country into the mess, resonated with the public. He got the most votes in the primaries held in August this year. This boosted the confidence of Milei who went overboard with extremist statements, crazy outbursts and attacks against those whom he did not like. He derided Pope Francis as “a malignant presence on earth,” “filthy leftist”, “a donkey”, “a jackass” and “a leftist sob”. This has not gone well in the catholic country which is proud of the first Argentine who has become Pope. 
 
Milei proposes to close down the Central Bank, dollarize the economy, shut down 10 of the 18 ministries and cut social expenditure. He has taken disturbing and unrealistic foreign policy positions. He attacks President Lula and admires the disgraced ex-president Bolsonaro. He is critical of Mercosur, the regional economic bloc as well as China, the most important economic partners of Argentina. He considers global warming as a “socialist lie”.
 
The masses struggling with poverty and economic difficulties realized that Milei has no agenda for them. Their situation would only worsen with Milei’s proposal to cut social expenditure. So they have ditched Milei and voted for the leftist candidate Massa, a known devil. In any case, Massa is a pragmatic and moderate leftist unlike the Kirchners who were extremists and confrontational.
 
Milei has got the message of the voters now and is toning down his rhetoric. He has realized the need for support of the moderate centre-right voters. 
 
I believe that Argentina needs a change from the traditional left and right.  An unconventional shock treatment by an outsider would be good at this time. So  Milei is a natural choice. But he needs to moderate himself and become more realistic and pragmatic. Only then he has a chance in the second round of elections on 19 November. 
 
In any case, even Milei gets elected as president he cannot impose his crazy proposals and become a monster like Bolsonaro or Trump.. His party does not have the legislative majority. In the Congressional elections held simultaneously  with the Presidential elections on 21 October, the leftist Peronist coalition has won the maximum seats. They got 34 seats in the House of deputies and 12 in the Senate. Milei’s party got 8 deputies and 8 senators while the centre-right coalition got 24 deputies and 2 senators. With these results, the new (Lower) House of Deputies will have 108 leftists, 38 Libertarians and 93 rightists out of a total of 257. In the Senate of 72 members, the leftists will number 34 while Libertarians will be 8 and rightists 24. So, Milei will need the support of the moderate rightists to pass his legislative reforms. He will have tough time in contending with the Leftist coalition which has the largest number of Deputies and Senators.
 
Milei would also have to live with another reality. The leftist incumbent candidate Axis Kicillof has been reelected as governor of Buenos Aires, the largest province with 17 million people out of the total country’s population of 45 million. There are also several other provinces with leftist governors. 
 
If Milei gets elected as president, the country would get a much-needed shock therapy. At the same time, he would not be allowed to become disastrous like Trump or Bolsonaro since the voters have built firewalls of opposition with their smart voting. It would not be bad either if the leftist Massa wins.  He is mature, balanced, pragmatic and has the much needed political experience of crisis management in recent times. 
 
 

Ecuador elects a well-qualified and wealthy but millennial and moderate Daniel Noboa as President

 

Ecuador elected Daniel Noboa as President in the elections held on Sunday. 

At 35, he is the youngest to become the President of the country.  His wife Lavinia Valbonesi, age 25, will be the youngest First Lady. She is a Social Media Influencer with interests and investment in health food, fitness and fashion. The dashing young, athletic-looking, entrepreneurial and successful couple have attracted the votes of the youth.

Noboa has an MBA from Kellogg School, Masters in Public Administration from Harvard and another Masters in Political Communication and Strategic Governance from George Washington University. He started his own company at the age of 18, before joining his family business later. 

Noboa is born into one of the wealthiest families. His grandfather became a millionaire exporting bananas and other products. His father expanded the business and built a large group with dozens of companies in various areas including in exports, logistics, fertilisers, fishing and real estate.

In fact, his father Alvaro Noboa was a presidential candidate five times in the past but unsuccessfully. Even in this election he put up his candidature but withdrew it in favour of his son. 

Predictably, Daniel Noboa is pro-business, but not at the expense of inclusive development. He wants to increase social spending on poverty alleviation, employment, healthcare and education. His wife is in favour of allowances for single mothers. While his conservative father used to call his leftist opponent Rafael Correa as “communist devil”, the son avoided harsh words, confrontation and hate speech. His calm and responsible comportment and pragmatic approach during the TV debates endeared him to the voters. 

Noboa’s opponent, the leftist Luisa Gonzalez got more votes than him in the first round with 34% as against his 23%. But in the second round she got 48% while he had secured 52%. She took the defeat gracefully and issued the following statement, “To those who did not vote for us, also our congratulations, because the candidate they chose has won and as Ecuadoreans we also embrace them. And of course to the candidate, now President-elect Daniel Noboa, our deepest congratulations because it is democracy. We have never called to set fire to a city nor have we ever gone out shouting fraud. Enough of hatred, enough of polarization, Ecuador needs to heal. And count on us for a common agreement for our country,”.  

What a graceful gesture in comparison to the ugly and undemocratic shenanigans of the defeated candidates of Brazil and US in their recent elections. Even during the campaign and election debates, the two candidates did not indulge in hate speeches, indecent comments or or lies like those of Trump/Bolsonaro. The discourses of the two candidates were civilized and proper.  

This kind of democratic maturity should be a lesson for the rest of Latin America and the US. 

Noboa will assume office in November 2023 and govern until May 2025, completing the shortened term of President Guillermo Lasso who resigned as President in a confrontation with the National Assembly which proposed to impeach him on corruption charges. He dissolved the Assembly and his presidency as provided in the constitution. 

Noboa’s top priority is to tackle the unprecedented high level of violence and crime unleashed by the drug cartels which use Ecuador as a hub to ship drugs to Europe and US. Two weeks before the first round of elections in August, the gangs  assassinated  a presidential candidate Fernando Villavicenio who promised tough action against them. They went on to murder five more politicians. Later they killed all the seven who were in jail accused of involvement in  Vicenzio’s murder. Noboa was wearing bullet-proof vest during his campaign.

His second priority is to revive the economy which has not yet recovered from the pandemic hit. The main income of the country is oil exports but part of the oil shipment goes to service the Chinese debt. Ecuador is a dollarized economy since 2000. After the severe economic crisis of 2000, the country abandoned its national currency 'Sucre' to deal with hyper inflation, fall in exchange rate and capital outflow. Even the extreme leftist anti-US Correa did not try to change the system of using US dollars as the national currency. This means that Ecuador does not print its own bank notes. Panama and El Salvador are the other two Latin American countries which are also dollarised. 

 

Noboa’s main challenge would be lack of legislative support. His party has only 11 members in the 137 strong unicameral National Assembly. The leftist party of Gonzalez, Revolución Ciudadana (RC), is the largest with 42 members. The party is controlled by ex-President Rafael Correa who ruled from 2007 to 2017. He is in exile in Belgium with his Belgian wife. He has been convicted to prison on corruption charges. He calls the charges as politically motivated and wants a Presidential pardon to get back to the country. It was he who was responsible for the downfall of the centre-right President Guillermo Lasso. He will continue to cause instability until  he is rehabilitated. This will be the biggest challenge for the young President Noboa who has political experience of just two years as member of the Assembly in 2021-22. Rafael Correa turned around the country during his ten-year rule with his successful Inclusive development policies and programmes. But he was a polarizing figure within and outside the country. 

 

Noboa would be the toast of Washington DC which is desperately looking for centre-right leaders in Latin America which is dominated at present by leftist Presidents. In 2009, President Rafael Correa kicked out the Americans from the Ecuadorian military base in Manta, in the Pacific Coast. The Americans used the base for drug interdiction and surveillance of the region. But Correa’s successor signed an Agreement with US for resumption of American airforce activities in Ecuador. The US started cultivating Ecuadorian armed forces with supply of equipments and training. The US will push Noboa to open more doors. 

Although Ecuador is a relatively small market of 17 million people, India’s bilateral trade was substantial at 1.4 billion dollars in 2022-23. Crude oil is the main item of imports out of a total of 1016 million from Ecuador. India’s exports were 400 million dollars and there is good potential to increase the exports. Given the high level of trade, there is a need for India to open an embassy in Quito. Ecuador has one in New Delhi.