Ambush of President Dilma's reelection bid by Amazon activist Marina Silva

President Dilma Rouseff's four year work for reelection has been ambushed in just two weeks by  the Amazon activist Marina Silva who is now predicted to win in the October elections. If elected, Marina is likely to continue the pro-poor policies of the current government. But she will be more proactive in foreign policy than Dilma. PM Modi will find Marina less stiffer and more enthusiastic than Dilma in bilateral partnership and cooperation in global issues.

Ambush of President Dilma's reelection bid by Amazon activist Marina Silva

President Dilma Rouseff was comfortably ensconced in her Planalto palace in Brasilia waiting to get reelected in the October elections. Even after the massive street protests and the shocking defeat of the Brazilian team in the World Cup, she was leading in the opinion polls to win against Aecio Neves, the candidate of the centre-right Social Democratic Party and Eduardo Campos of the Socialist Party. This was until 20 August, when the Socialist Party had put up Marina Silva as Presidential candidate in place of Campos who died in a plane crash the week before. Two opinion polls, released in the first week of September, have predicted that Marina would win with a 7% lead over Dilma in the second round of the elections.The Dilma camp which had been systematically preparing for reelection with confidence for the last four years has been shocked by this ambush from the Amazon-born activist.

The prospect of Marina's win has come as a boon to the middle class which had protested in the last two years against poor public services, rise in prices and the corruption scandals involving the Workers' Party (PT) of Dilma. Marina is perceived as a principled anti-establishment outsider by the protestors. Marina's clean image contrasts her from Dilma's PT whose top leaders have been convicted on corruption charges. Marina's humble origin resonates with the poor people.The business community, which resented the I-know-everything attitude and inaccessibility of Dilma, has quickly latched on to the winning camp of Marina. They believe in her transformation from an idealist activist to a pragmatic political leader. Marina has declared that she will be a one-time President and will not seek reelection. This is a clever message to the supporters of Lula who has announced his own candidature for 2018. Marina has thus gained the support of the poor, the middle-class and the business dipping into the vote banks of Dilma and Neves

Marina's personal life story is compelling and similar to Lula's spectacular rise from poverty to presidency. She was born in a poor rubber tapping community in a village in the Amazonian state of Acre. She was one of the eleven children born to her parents who died leaving her as orphan at the age of 16. She learnt to read as a teenager when she was raised by nuns. She survived malaria, hepatitis and other diseases. She joined the rubber tappers' union and worked with the famous Chico Mendes whose movement worked for the protection of the Amazon from the deforestation interests.  She joined PT in 1986 and was elected as deputy in the State Assembly in 1990 and as Federal Senator in 1994. She became the Minister of Environment in President Lula's cabinet in the period 2003-8. But she resigned from the cabinet when her passionate environmentalism collided with vested interests and she lost the support of Lula.

Marina fought the 2010 elections as candidate of Green Party and came in the third place with an impressive 19.3 % of votes. Later she tried to create a party of her own called as the Sustainability Network but it did not work out. In 2013, she joined the Socialist Party and agreed to be the vice-presidential candidate with Campos. 

If elected, Marina is likely to  continue the Inclusive social policies of the current government, since she is also a leftist like Lula and Dilma. But she might give more space to the private sector business which felt stifled by the Dilma administration. The Brazilian stock and bond markets have already started bullish run anticipating Marina's win.

Brazilian foreign policy remained passive in the last four years since Dilma took very little interest in external affairs. But Marina is committed  to raise the profile of Brazil. She gives importance to regional integration, South-South cooperation, improvement of relations with US, signing of trade agreement with Europe and innovative Brazilian leadership initiatives in global climate change policies. She is likely to be less vocal in supporting Iran, Cuba and Venezuela. 

Prime Minister Modi might find Marina a bit less stiffer and more enthusiastic than Dilma in strengthening the bilateral strategic partnership and cooperation in IBSA, BRICS as well as in multilateral fora. 

Poverty reduction and politics in Latin America

The credit for significant poverty reduction achieved in the last decade in Latin America goes to the pro-poor policies of the leftist governments who have been elected and reelected in recent years. In keeping with this trend, the Left is expected to be voted back to power in the October elections to be held in Brazil, Uruguay and Bolivia.The emancipation of millions of people from poverty is good news for the Indian companies exporting goods affordable to the new middle class in the region.

Poverty reduction and politics in Latin America 

More than 56 million people have been lifted out of poverty in Latin America in the period 2000-2012, according to a 26 August report* of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) based on data for 18 countries (Cuba and Haiti have not been covered) of the region accounting for 90% of the total population. The poverty level (under 4 $ a day) fell from 42 % to 25 % and the number of poor reduced to 134 million in 2012. The middle class ( 10-50 $ per day) which rose from 21 % to 34% reached 181 million. Between the middle class and the poor there were 200 million who earned  4 to 10 $ a day. 

Boliviahas achieved the greatest poverty reduction by 32.2%, followed by Peru with 26.3%, Venezuela -22.7%, Ecuador 21.9%, Brazil 18.6%, Panama-18.2%, Argentina-14.2%, Chile -13.1%, Costa Rica- 11.8% and Colombia- 10.6%.  In three countries, poverty levels have gone up. These are Guatemala 6.8%, Dominican Republic-0.7% and Honduras-0.5%. 

The credit for poverty reduction should be given primarily to the pro-poor policies of the left-of-centre governments in the region. This is evident from the fact that the top five countries with the highest poverty reduction have leftist governments. It is highlighted strikingly even more clearly in the contrast between Bolivia and Guatemala; the former has achieved the highest poverty reduction with a leftist government while Guatemala has seen increase in poverty with its rightist governments.The Bolivian success should be attributed entirely to Evo Morales, the first native Indian elected as President of the country in the 200 -year history of the country. The Indians, who form sixty percent of the Bolivian population and the bulk of the poor, never got the attention of the conservative European descendant rulers. It was Evo Morales who focussed on the poor Indians as a priority for his government. But the Guatemalan Indians who also form 60% of the population continue to be marginalized by the conservative governments of European descent. When a leftist President Arbanz tried to protect the poor with some progressive policies in 1954, the United Fruit company and CIA engineered a coup and installed right wing dictatorship. The current democratically elected President is Otto Perez Molina, a retired army General. It is no surprise that Guatemala has the highest proportion (63.1%) of poor in the whole region.

Uruguay has the highest proportion ( 60.2%) of middle class but its population is just 3.4 million. In the top four biggest markets, the middle class constitute 34.8% in Brazil, 26.4% in Mexico, 54.4% in Argentina and 26.8% in Colombia.

The success of poverty alleviation is the reason why Leftists have been elected and reelected in many countries of the region. At present, ten countries of Latin America have Leftist governments. These are: Chile, Brazil, Bolivia, Uruguay, Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Cuba ( unelected).

The Conservatives were defeated in the last elections in Chile and Mexico. In Chile, the conservatives who came to power in 2010 after two decades of centre-left governments lost to the Left in the December 2013 elections. In Mexico, the left-of-centre Instituitional Revolutionary Party (PRI) defeated the conservative PAN party which was in power for two terms till 2012.

At present only four countries have conservative governments: Colombia, Honduras, Paraguay and Guatemala. In Colombia, the Left has been given a bad name by the FARC guerrillas who have misused their original Marxist-Leninist ideology and got into drug trafficking, kidnappings and terrorism. In Honduras and Paraguay the conservatives came to power through questionable routes. In Honduras, the Leftist President Manuel Zelaya was overthrown in a coup in 2009 with indirect US support. The coupsters ensured the conservative victory in the elections in 2010 and 2013. In Paraguay, there was a Congressional coup by the conservatives in 2012 who forced the Leftist President Fernando Lugo out of office. The oligarchs of the country conspired together and have reestablished centre-right governments since then.

Given the link between poverty alleviation and politics, it is no surprise that the Left is expected to retain power in the elections to be held in Brazil, Bolivia and Uruguay in October this year .

The emancipation of people from poverty and the enlargement of middle class in Latin America is an encouraging news for Indian companies which export medicines, two and three wheelers, cell phones, clothes, and other goods affordable for the low income groups. 

* http://www.latinamerica.undp.org/content/dam/rblac/docs/Research%20and%20Publications/Poverty%20Reduction/UNDP-RBLAC-Grupos_sociales_AL-2014.PDF