"Caudillos, Comrades and Conservatives: the political journey of Latin America"
This was the topic of my talk at Ashoka University, yesterday..
Some points I made:
Latin America took the Macondo route in its political journey since independence in the 1820s. The 200 years of political journey of the region is like the story of "100 years of solitude" of Gabriel Garcia Marquez..with twists and turns, deviations and diversions, ups and downs..adventures and misadventures..
Caudillos started the journey and ruled the region for about 150 years. The power flowed from the military barracks and oligarchic mansions..
Comrades joined the journey in the 1920s, inspired by the Russian Revolution. MN Roy from India was a co-founder of the Mexican Communist party in 1919.
During the Cold war, the Caudillos joined the US War on Communism and killed, tortured and exiled several thousand Comrades..
The Comrades came to power in Cuba and later in Nicaragua. Che Guevara became an icon for the comrades around the world, besides Latin America.
Military Dictatorships ended in the 1980s. But the transition to democracy was tentative and cautious since the political leaders and people were still scared of the Colonels. At this vulnerale time "neoliberalism" was imposed by the Washington Consensus which increased the poverty and ruined the economies of the region. This was the "Lost Decade".
Real democracy arrived in the 21st century with power shifting decisively from the mansions and military barracks to the masses and the ballot boxes. The empowered masses voted for those who had agenda for them. Obviously, Leftists came to power in 10 countries in this "Pink Tide". The Leftist reduced poverty and increased economic growth. This was known as the "Decade of Growth"
The Left dug its own grave with its hubris, excesses and scandals. Chavez, Morales and Ortega damaged the brand of the left and ruined their countries. Cuba is stuck in an anachronistic dictatorship.
This has triggered the rise of Conservatives.. and some caudillos too inspired by the Big Bad caudillo from the North.
Many Latin American countries (except Nicaragua,Venezuela and El Salvador) have inserted constitutional safeguards against long caudillo rule by limiting the term of presidents. Guatemala does not allow family members of the sitting president to succeed him. Costa Rica had abolished the army in 1948. Mexico has succeeded in achieving gender parity in top executive, legislative and judicial powers.. to restrain the macho caudillos.
Chile and Uruguay have gained democratic maturity by electing left and Right alternately and getting the best out of both in the last three decades.
Lula is not a traditional leftist. His governing and development model is Lulaism/ Brasilia Consensus..which is a judicious mix of pro-poor and business-friendly policies. This is the reason for his election for a record fourth term as president of Brazil.
