Narcos - a serial deception in the name of the War on Drugs

I have watched the twenty episodes of the Netflix serial " Narcos " and enjoyed it thoroughly. I found it absorbing and hmm.. addictive too. The story of Pablo Escobar is colorful and has all the ingredients for entertainment. I liked the dialogues in Colombian Spanish, the best in Latin America. 

The story of Escobar is part of the larger story involving the politics of Colombia; the social divide between the oligarchic ruling establishment in Bogota and the poor people in the interior; the leftist guerrilla wars; corruption and violence in the Colombian society; the interference in the internal affairs of Colombia by US in the name of the war on drugs and the war on communism; and the US military-industry-intelligence complex which plunged into Colombia, looking for a new playing field after the end of the 'cold war'. 

Interestingly, there are some Brazilian elements in this Colombian serial. Brazilian actor Wagnor Mora has done justice to Escobar's character by his superb acting. He had learnt Spanish specially for acting in the serial. Jose Padilha, the Brazilian who was famous for his film 'Elite Squad" directed the Narcos serial in the beginning. The title song of the serial is composed and sung by Rodrigo Amarante, another Brazilian.

Narcos is based on the real life story of Pablo Escobar, the Medellin drug king and the hunt for him by Colombian and American forces.  Escobar, who starts life as a small time smuggler of cigarettes and electronics, discovers the Big Business of cocaine supply to US and goes up in the value chain. With the power of money, he starts buying, fighting and bullying politicians, media,security forces and rivals with his 'plata o plomo' (money or bullets) approach. The Colombian politicians did not care much initially about the drug business which they considered  an easy way for some enterprising Colombians to make quick dollars from the decadent Yankee drug addicts. But the Colombian government is forced by the heavy hand of American administration to act against drug production and trafficking. Caught between the Devils of the Empires of Consumption and Supply, the Colombian administration and security forces get into enforcement reluctantly. Escobar retaliates with bombings, assassinations and kidnappings. When the public opinion and government pressure become overwhelming, Escobar makes an incredible deal with the government under which he self-imprisons himself in his custom made jail cum resort 'La catedral'. Unable to tolerate his continuation of business of drugs and killings from the jail, the government sends special forces to transfer him to another jail. But Escobar escapes and is on the run. Realizing that the security forces are not a match to Escobar, the American and the Colombian security agencies conspire and create Los Pepes, a right wing militia which kills Escobar's associates and destroys his businesses one after another, in collusion with the rival Cali cartel. Escobar tries to send his family abroad to a safe place but the government stops it and makes his family a hostage. Escobar's phone conversations with his captive family provides the opportunity for the security forces to trace his calls and kill him.

After watching Narcos, I read the book " Killing Pablo- the true story behind the hit series Narcos" written by Mark Bowden.  The author has interviewed  the main American and Colombian officials and political leaders involved in the hunt for Escobar and has had access to a number of US documents. He has given a detailed account of the 'turf war' between the US spying and enforcement agencies who compete with each other for one upmanship, resources and credit.

According to Bowden, Escobar became an ideal trophy target for the CIA, NSA, FBI, Army, Navy, Airforce, Marines, and special forces, who were looking for a new role in the world after the end of the cold war. They  jumped joyfully into the 'war on drugs' with their spy equipments, budget and Rambo confidence. At one time there were about 17 spy planes flying over Medellin to track Escobar and they had to assign an AWACS (airborne warning and control centre), to keep track of the planes.  

While I enjoyed watching the serial and reading the book, I ended up feeling sad and angry, like my Colombian and Latin American friends. The Narcos story has been narrated narrowly from an American point of view distorting the facts with false and misleading propaganda.  Colombians are portrayed as the bad guys while the DEA agents come out as 'good guys'. But the truth is that the real villains are the American consumers of drugs. Colombia had to bear the extreme pain and shed blood for the sake of those Americans who enjoy the pleasure of illegal drugs. The drug business is basically demand-driven and consumer-driven from US. The drugs are continuing to be consumed even now by Hollywood actors, politicians and pop stars besides the students and other sections of the American society. So long as this continues and the US consumers are willing to pay top dollars, there will always be suppliers. Even President Nixon, who declared the war on drugs, admitted in his June 1971 address to the Congress, “as long as there is a demand, there will be those willing to take the risks of meeting the demand.”  In this statement, he publicly proclaimed that all efforts of interdiction and eradication are destined to fail. But the Narcos serial as well as the American media and administration have succeeded in demonizing Pablo Escobar as 'the most powerful criminal in history' and giving a bad name to Colombia while covering up the real consumer culprits in US and and misleading and distorting the global discourse on drugs. The killing of Escobar has not stopped or reduced drug consumption in US. The Cali cartel took over where it was left by the Medellin gangs and is now run by Mexican cartels. 

The US market for illegal drugs was over 100 billion dollars in 2012 , according to a Rand Corporation report (file://localhost/Users/rengaraj-viswanathan/Documents/RAND_RB9770.pdf)  which included 40 billion dollars of Marijuana, 28 billion of Cocaine, 27 billion of Heroine and 13 bn of Meth. According to a 2012 study by the Organisation of American States ( http://www.cicad.oas.org/drogas/elinforme/informeDrogas2013/laEconomicaNarcotrafico_ENG.pdf ) the Andean cocoa leaf producers get only 1% of the retail value of cocaine in US, while the traffickers get 20-25% and the remaining stays within the US retail business. So, the illegal drugs are just a business in which the US "Customer is the King". The Colombians and Mexicans simply serve the King and receive just the crumb. 

The business of 'war on drugs' is also equally huge. It is said that US spends around 50 billion dollars a year. DEA has its own fleet of planes, boats and secret cash. No wonder that the DEA chief is called as the Drug Czar. The corporations, contractors and equipment suppliers to DEA want the continuation of this profitable war and successfully lobby the Congress and administration for its perpetuation.

In the name of the 'war on drugs', the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) and other intelligence agencies of the US have infiltrated the security forces of many countries of Latin America. The US forces these countries to militarize their anti drug operations as a priority and devote more of their resources to the drug war at the expense of all other law and order issues. Through such interference the US creates and cultivates future military dictators. The classic case was Manuel Noriega who became the Panamanian president. CIA had used him for their covert operations and helped him with drug trafficking and money laundering.  But when he became too hot to handle, the US invaded Panama and took him away as prisoner.  There is evidence that CIA itself had got into the drug business to generate money to aid the 'contras' against the Sandinistas of Nicaragua. This has been brought out in the Hollywood fim "Kill the messenger", based on the true story of an American journalist who uncovered the scam.

The US had tried very hard to prevent the election of Evo Morales as President of Bolivia by branding him as a coca-leaf producer. US has airsprayed harmful chemicals in Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia to destroy coca fields, damaging agricultural land and the ecosystem. The US needs to respect the Andean tradition of using coca leaves for religious, food and medicinal purposes and separate the sacred leaf issue from the profane cocaine snorting in US for recreation.

Drug trafficking is not just one way business. Drug goes into US for which the American dollars and illegal guns are smuggled to Latin America. This reverse trafficking is even more dangerous than the drug flow  since guns kill instantly and takes many victims at one go unlike the drugs which kill only the consumer and that too slowly . According to a US report (The Way of the Gun: Estimating Firearms Traffic Across the U.S.-Mexico Border.” study by University of San Diego’s Trans-Border Institute http://catcher.sandiego.edu/items/peacestudies/way_of_the_gun.pdf ), over 200,000 guns are smuggled from US to Mexico every year. On average, there are more than three US gun dealers for every mile of the 1,970-mile border between the countries. Mexico has just one gun shop for the whole country while there are 51300 retail gun sellers in US. A significant proportion of the US gun sellers depend on the illegal demand from Mexico. It has been reported that over three fourth of the guns used in the fights between the gangs in El Salvador are of US origin. Thousands of people die in Mexico, Central America and Colombia from the illegal guns smuggled from US, the largest manufacturer and supplier of fire arms in the world. If we use the American logic that eradication of production is the solution for drug problem, isn't it logical to extend this argument and say that the gun production in US needs to be eradicated to prevent the killings in Mexico and Central America? Probably more people in Latin America have been killed with American guns than the number of Americans killed by Latin American drugs.

According to a 2010 Homeland Security study ( https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cne-criminalproceedsstudy.pdf), between $19 billion and $29 billion dollars of cash had been smuggled from the United States to drug trafficking organizations and other organized criminal groups in Mexico each year. Western Banks like HSBC have been caught for drug money laundering in Mexico. But HSBC got away with payment of simple fine to US justice Department. 

Many even in the US admit the failure of the American drug war. Clearly, illegal drug consumption is a social problem within the US which needs domestic solutions such as legalization. The drug wars in Latin America is just a ploy to blame others and mislead the world  to cover up a purely domestic problem. US could learn from Uruguay which has shown the way to legalize production, distribution and consumption of marijuana. The US states of Washington and Colorado have already taken the lead to liberalize sale and consumption in a limited way. Many Latin American presidents have called for drug legalization but the US would not let them.  

Like the Netflix serials, the military-industrial-intelligence complex of US has been inventing its own versions of real life serial wars for profit as well as to destabilize and interfere in the affairs of Latin American countries. They started off with the "war on communism"during which they overthrew many democracies and propped up military dictatorships. Then they moved on to "War on Drugs" and messed up Colombia. The US sent hundreds of agents, soldiers and contractors to Colombia with diplomatic passports and made the embassy in Bogota as the largest in the world. The Americans were interfering freely in the Colombian police, armed forces, judiciary, Congress and administration ordering them what to do and what not to do.  They corrupted the Colombians with 'visa and asylum for collusion and collaboration'. The Americans are now vitiating Mexico and Central America with the same drug wars. The third serial was the "War on Terrorism" since 9/11. But this did not find much traction in the region, although 'terrorists' were invented before the Rio Olympics and spotted earlier in Paragauay and Mexico in the same way as nuclear weapons were 'found' in Iraq. Fortunately Latin America did not suffer in the terrorism war since the neocons have had their hands full in the Middle East. 

The fourth and the latest serial is the "war on corruption". The US intelligence has spied on Petrobras, the Brazilian firm which is now at the centre of the ongoing corruption investigation in Brazil as well as President Dilma Rouseff, among others, as revealed by the papers leaked by Snowden. The Brazilians suspect that the US had passed on information against selected targets to a Brazilian judge who had been to Harvard and participated in exchange programmes with US agencies. The judge, according to some Brazilians, started a selective crusade against the Workers Party, President Dilma and ex-President Lula who had stood against the hemispheric hegemony of US and successfully killed the US initiative to sign a Free Trade Area of the Americas. Outraged by the US espionage, President Dilma cancelled her state visit to Washington DC in 2013. President Lula had directly challenged US by his audacious rescue of President Chavez when he was briefly overthrown in a coup in 2002 and his attempt (unsuccessful) to undo the US-supported coup in Honduras in 2009. So the US wants to teach a lesson to Lula. The corruption war has already yielded commercial dividends to US. The unelected right wing Brazilian President Michel Temer has put an end to the "Resource Nationalism policy" by cutting down the monopoly of Petrobras in the pre-salt oil production and breaking the company into pieces which are being picked up by US corporations at rock bottom prices. 

Another Latin American victim of the 'war on corruption' is the Guatemalan President Otto Perez Molina, who seemed to have got on the wrong side of the Big Brother, like Noriega. The Latin Americans believe that the leakage of Panama Papers with information on selected targets and the aggressive investigation into Latin American FIFA officials  are also part of the destabilization of the region in the name of the 'war on corruption'. It is no surprise to find from recent US media reports that many Venezuelans have been named as corrupt or alleged to be involved in narco trafficking. This is just preparation for the 'regime change' in Venezuela. The war on corruption could claim more Latin American leaders who dare to disobey the Washington Consensus. 

While I am looking forward to see more episodes of 'Narcos' in the forthcoming third and fourth seasons, the Latin Americans fear that the Warlords of Washington DC might also be planning their own next real war serials in the name of something or other. 

Malayali adventures in the land of Marquez and Maradona

"Latin America is my favorite destination for travel", says Dr Natarajan Pillai, the ENT surgeon from Kochi, who has made six trips to the region. He 'feels at home' there and describes his experience as 'adventures'. I saw  a lustrous Latino shine in his eyes and an enigmatic Ipanema smile whenever the word Latin America came up during my encounter with him in his Kochi home in January this year. He is yet another proof of my saying, " Indian visitors to Latin America come back happier and younger.."

Dr Pillai has been to Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Mexico, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. He has spent a total of around 130 days in the region. He has plans to visit the remaining eight Latin Americans in the future, to match my record..!

He has written three books in Malayalam on his Latin American journeys: 

1. Dakshinaayana Kaalam ( Southward Bound ') - about his trip to Sao Paulo and Santos in Brazil. Published in December 2010.

2 Samkrama sooryante Nizhal (The shadow of Transiting Sun), March 2012. It covers Rio and Foz de Iguazu in Brazil besides Ciudad del Este and a Guarani village in Paraguay

3.Ven Samkholikalude Pranaya Theeram ( echoes from the white conch in the shore of love) -  about his journey through Chile and his 'love affair with poems of Pablo Neruda and Hispanic literature'. Published in July 2014, this book got him the ' KV Surendranath ' Award of C.Achutha Menon Foundation for the Best Travelogue published in Malayalam in the last five years.

He has written another book  'Mekkongile Malsyam' ( Mekong Fish)- March 2008, on his experience in Laos. He has a passion for travel and has visited 57 countries. He takes off every six months or  year since 1984 on travel to different destinations in India and and the world. Once he spent nine months traveling in northern India, staying in temples, ashrams and monasteries. Dr Pillai's next book, 'Shadow of Winter Solstice', about his Antarctica trip is coming out soon  in English. He writes a regular column for Mathrubhumi Yathra Travel Magazine. The June 2016 issue carries his article on La Paz , the Capital of Bolivia.

I had requested Ambassador Sajeev Babu ( speaks Malayalam and is posted in Guatemala at present) to review the three books on Latin America. Here is what he wrote: 

"There are three aspects in Dr. Natrajan’s travel writing. First, there is well researched background information; from history, geography and anthropology to contemporary economics, politics, education, arts, sports, cuisine and culture of the places.  Second, there are his observations and comments on what he witnesses during the journey. The reader is taken as his fellow traveller, accompanying him to the cities, monuments and museums; enjoying art,music and sports, tasting the typical food and drinks and living the experience. Here too, details do not escape the eyes of Dr. Natarajan; be it the presentation of the Carnival in Rio or just the preparation of a local drink in a bar. Third, he gives us yet another dimension of the adventure through his informative conversations with people whom he meets. They include Guaresi of Sao Paulo and Alfonos in Chile with whom the author gets to spend considerable time. Then there are others with whom he enjoys brief interactions, like Amelio, the hotel boy in Sao Paulo, Eloy the moto taxi driver and Abdullah Khuri, the Lebanese settler in Ciudad del Este, Pauline from Belgium in Paraguay and Matias and Leonor in Santiago. The simplicity he adopts in his travel also reflects in his narration. His passages through history and description of art and interpretation of literature are more like story telling. He has used easy-to-read language for the ordinary Malayalees to understand and appreciate. He has sprinkled humor here and there to make the reading more interesting such his description of the Café de las Piernas ( coffee with legs !!) in Chile. He has made an effort to expose the reader to the Spanish and Portuguese languages by including some words and sentences in them". 

Dr. Pillai is a backpacker, uses public transport and stays in budget hotels when he is not able to find local people to stay with. This approach has given him opportunities to get a real feel of the daily life of the common people and interact with them.  He says, "People are the greatest sights and all else is secondary". He does not plan and prepare everything in advance. Sometimes he lets his legs wander without a pre-planned programme. 

Latin America, in many ways, is close to Malayalee heart. Malayalees, along with Bengalis are the most knowledgeable and interested in Latin America especially in literature, Leftist politics and football. 

Latin American authors are familiar to Keralite readers thanks to prolific translations. Gabriel Garcia Marquez is a household name and his books have been in the best-seller lists in the state and had fifteen editions. When Gabo was diagnosed with cancer, about 200 people in Kozhikode had held a prayer meeting.  When Marquez died,  the Keralite media paid homage saying," Marquez leaves an indelible mark in Malayalee hearts". Some even claim that "Magical Realism was invented by O V Vijayan in ‘Khasakkinte Itihasam’, much before Garcia Marquez had published a word". Khasak in Vijyan's novel is similar to the mythical place Maconde in Marquez's works. Dr Pillai had started reading Latino literature since his college days.

Posters of Fidel Castro, Che Guavara and Chavez are the sacred trinities adorning the Marxist party conferences even now in the interior of Kerala. The adoration is so much that the Trivandrum audience in my lecture last year were not amused when I described the destruction of Venezuela by Chavistas. Dr Pillai was himself a leftist in his youth.

The Maradona-Pele rivalry plays out and flags of Brazil and Argentina go up in rooftops across Kerala during World Cups. Maradona had visited Kerala in 2012 at the invitation of Bobby Chemmanur Group of Kannur which has made him as their brand ambassador. The Chemmanur Jewellery released a gold coin with Maradona’s picture on one side and his signature on the other.The suite no. 399 of Hotel Blue Nile in Kannur, where Mardaona had stayed, has become so famous that the management has converted it into a museum.  

There is a spice connection too. The Keralite cardamom growers make long distance calls to Ambassador Babu asking him to report on the Guatemalan production which determines the global prices. Guatemala has become the largest exporter of cardamom in the world, overtaking India in the last three decades. The variety grown in Guatemala was originally taken from the Malabar coast.

Despite the political, literary and sporting inspirations, Malayalees have not ventured out to the region except for about a hundred catholic priests who connect the Latin Americans to Jesus in fluent Portuguese and Spanish across the region. There are a few professionals married to Latinas and settled there. The most prominent is Mathew Kodath, who has become a leading producer of Honduran films. He has married a Honduran and settled there. I liked his film "Amor y frijoles"( love and beans).

  

Dr Pillai's books, the first-ever comprehensive travelogues on contemporary Latin America in Malayalam language, have become popular.  Latin America can expect more Mallu travelers to come greeting 'Hola' and 'Ola'.

The Japanese Lover

The latest novel of  Isabel Allende, "the Japanese lover" is a different kind of romantic love story. It is not her usual recipe of Latino love and magical realism. She has brought together a free-spirited Californian girl with a disciplined and traditional Japanese man. 

Alma Belasco, from a rich San Francisco family, falls in love with Ichimei Fakuda, son of the Japanese gardener working in the mansion of her grand father. But it was a wrong time. It was after the Japanese declaration of war against the US during the Second World War. The Americans round up the Japanese in the country including the family of Ichimei and detain them in internment camps. Having been separated without any communication, the two get on with their own separate lives. After the release from the camp, Ichimei gets married to a woman from Japan. Alma also gets married and ends up in the old-age home Lark House as a grand mother. 

There is the second love story of Irina, the employee in Lark House, with Seth the grand son of Alma. Irina takes to the challenging old age home job enthusiastically to escape from her traumatic past of an abused victim. To supplement her modest salary, she does part time work of washing and grooming dogs and becomes the secretary to Alma. Irina and Seth are intrigued by the weekly delivery of flowers and letters received by Alma at the old-age home and her frequent disappearances. They investigate and discover the secret romantic story of Alma. 

Allende has given a fascinating account of life in retirement homes and the way old people deal with memories, loneliness, pain and diseases while waiting for death to come. The Lark House residents have lots of stories and affairs. There is Jacques Devine, the in-house Casanova who continues his old habit of flirtation and enjoys being the heartthrob for the old ladies. He had fallen in love sixty seven times. During his earlier days as businessman in Venezuela and Puerto Rico, he had learnt the Latino art of 'appreciating women from the rear'. He falls in platonic love with the young Irina too and bequeathes his property to her.

Allende has contrasted the colorful Californian culture with the sober and sensitive Japanese value system. She has given a glimpse of Japanese culture and character. The book reminded me of the Brazilians of Japanese origin ( there are about a million of them living mostly in Sao Paulo state) who dance samba crazily and at the same time bow respectfully before the elders. It is a remarkable blend of Brazilian ecstatic exuberance and Japanese subdued sobriety.The Japanese golf club in Arauja, Sao Paulo reverberates with raunchy jokes and loud laughter, unimaginable in any club in Japan. 

After having read many of Allende's novels, I enjoyed reading this one too, even when my favorite Latino flavor was missing. It was a different dish.. not a spicy Bahian Moqueca but a tasty Californian sushi roll.

The Great Novel of Central America

" Divine Punishment is on the way". This was the message received in my mobile phone the other day. I did not open it, thinking that it could be a spam from one of the evangelical preachers. Later in the evening, there was another message saying that Divine Punishment has already been delivered at my residence. Alarmed, I opened it quickly to find  that Divine Punishment was actually the name of the book I had ordered from Amazon, two weeks earlier. 

It was Carlos Fuentes, the Mexican writer who had described the book ' Divine Punishment' written by Sergio Ramirez as the great novel of Central America. Having read many books of Carlos Fuentes and developed an admiration for him, I ordered 'Divine Punishment' immediately.  The novel is set in Leon, the second largest city of Nicaragua but covers Guatemala and Costa Rica too, giving a feel of Central America to the readers.  The protagonist Oliverio Castaneda is a Guatemalan living in Nicaragua. Another character in the novel Dona Flora, wife of the Nicaraguan Don Contreras is from Costa Rica. The ladies of Leon, jealous of Flora's sophistication and progressive and liberal lifestyle, calls he disparagingly as 'that Costa Rican woman'. Even now, Costa Rica is the envy of the other Central Americans for its political maturity, economic prosperity and social stability.

Having known about Ramirez as a Sandinista leader, I expected the book to be about revolution, Marxism, Contra War and other such issues of Nicaragua and Central America. Ramirez, who was part of the Sandinista Revolution, later got disenchanted and turned into an opponent of Daniel Ortega. He had written Divine Punishment in the period 1985-87, when he was Vice President under President Ortega and when the government was in the middle of a deadly war with the Contras supported by US . With this background, Ramirez is in the best position to write about the story of the country. But Ramirez had consciously decided against writing on a contemporary theme, with this candid explanation,' Since I myself was part of the revolution, I would have run the risk of taking sides and turning the narrative into a discourse tainted by ideological convictions and political propaganda. From a position of power, it is impossible to place oneself above events, as a novelist should always do"

 A newly-married Guatemalan Oliverio Castenada arrives with his wife at Leon for legal studies and takes up residence in a hotel. He is soon invited to shift to the residence of  Don Contreras, a businessman living opposite to the hotel. The two daughters of Contreras as well as his wife ( more beautiful than the two daughters put together) fall in love with Castenada, who also gets involved in the business of Contreras. The sudden and untimely death of Castenada's wife is followed soon by the death of the elder daughter of Contreras  and the businessman himself. While the doctors have certified these deaths as due to backwater fever, there is suspicion that Castenada is the one who murdered all the three by poisoning. The rumour starts at the 'accursed' table in a bar where a group of friends meet regularly to exchange gossip. The group includes a doctor, who starts the rumor about poisoning and a journalist who writes about it as well as about the affairs of the Contreras ladies with the accused. The scandal shocks the society and the church of Leon. Much of the story is in the form of newspaper stories, courtroom trials and letters exchanged between the characters. The innocent and pure romance of the daughters of Contreras  is juxtaposed with the cruel manipulation of their emotions by Castaneda for his criminal motives. The story goes like an Agatha Christie detective novel with mystery and suspense till the very end, but with an authentic Central American feel.  Once I started, I could not stop till I finished the 500 plus pages book. 

The novel is based on a real life story of murders which took place in the 1930s in Nicaragua during the time of the Somoza, the military strongman who was controlling the government, before becoming a full fledged dictator. Ramirez had done thorough research of the case before fictionalizing what had happened and letting his imagination run. 

The author gives an insight into the political and social situation of Nicaragua and Central America in the first part of the last century. The US, which had invaded and occupied Nicaragua from 1912 to 1933 had just left, paving the way for the military dictatorship of Somoza. The National Guards trained by the US had started calling the shots, running roughshod over the judiciary and democratic institutions. Ramirez has used many colors and shades to paint the complex personality of the protagonist Castaneda who is a Casanova-like charmer who seduces women with a vast repertoire of jokes, wit and playfulness. At the same time, he is a sociopath who executes his criminal intentions with evil machinations, cruel pranks and ruthless manipulations. The readers are amazed by the ingenious way in which Castaneda plans the poisoning and influences the doctors as well as family and friends making them believe that the deaths were caused by blackwater fever. Ramirez has given vivid, colorful and humorous descriptions of the characters of journalists, doctors, businessmen, domestic servants, clergy and police. The way Ramirez portrays the people in his book reminds me of such memorable and lively characters I found in the novels of the Brazilian writer Jorge Amado. 

The story is enriched by the poetic characters of Judge Fiallos and court clerk Vanegas. The judge is a narrator of homely tales with love for the homeland of scorched Pacific plains and of volcanos whose ancient haughty peaks interrupt the landscape, "raw with age and solemn with myth" as Ruben Dario says. Dario is the famous Nicaraguan writer, born in Leon. Salman Rushdie, in his book ¨The jaguar smile", quotes a saying that there are poets and writers in every street of Nicaragua and that everybody is considered to be a poet until proved to the contrary. Daniel Ortega, the President is a poet and his wife Rosario Murillo is also a writer.  More on this in my blogpost 

http://latinamericanaffairs.blogspot.in/2009/05/nicaragua-land-of-poets-and-volcanos.html#links

Ramirez is the second Central American writer, I have read after Miguel Angel Asturias of Guatemala who won Nobel prize for his book " The President". I am looking forward to read Ramirez's book " Adios Muchachos: a memoir the Sandinista revolution" which has already arrived in my iPad Kindle.

Argentina's Anti-incumbency verdict

The election of Mauricio Macri  as the President of Argentina in the elections held on Sunday, is an anti-incumbency verdict.  The Argentine economic situation had been steadily getting worse in the last five years with high inflation, shortage of foreign exchange, isolation from the global capital markets and low growth. President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner had run out of ideas  and had been in denial mode. Her government had resorted to blatant cooking up of statistics showing single digit inflation while it had been over 20% annually in the last five years. Her antagonism to private sector business, unpredictable policies and the arbitrary restrictions on imports and foreign exchange had hurt the business and the middle class. The poor people, who form a solid vote bank of the Peronist party, were hit even harder by inflation and unemployment. Some of the Peronist voters had, therefore, switched loyalty and decided to give a chance to Macri's promise for change . 

Macri's market-friendly approach should reboot the economy and revive the industry and agricultural sectors which had remained paralyzed under the command and control approach of the outgoing regime. Macri's business family background and  his track record of competent administration during his two term Mayorship of Buenos Aires should restore investors' confidence.

Wall Street will hail Macri as the latest pro-market poster boy of  Latin America. The anti-neo liberalism brigade should, however, note that Macri will not be a worse sinner than the Peronist President Menem who got the country into the 2002 crisis with his neoliberalistic policies including unsustainable exchange rate regime and wholesale privatisations in a hurry.

Macri should be able to a turn around the economy soon, just as President Nestor Kirchner did so successfully in 2003. In fact, Macri's challenge is much smaller in comparison to what Nestor faced  after the historic crisis and collapse of the economy in 2002.  Nestor should be given full credit for rescuing the Argentine economy quickly with his unorthodox and bold policies and handing over to his wife in 2007 a reasonably sound economy with robust growth. It is a pity that she mismanaged it, taking it back almost to the brink of another crisis.

Argentina does not have any serious unsolvable fundamental problems. It is blessed with large area of fertile land, abundant water, mineral riches, hydrocarbon reserves and an educated homogeneous population of just forty two million. It is free from racial, religious and ethnic conflicts.  The current economic problems are basically short term in nature, caused by the fall in demand and prices of its commodity exports, besides incompetent management.  

The foreign policy of the country will undergo a major change under Macri. He will not be friendly to the leftist governments in the region which enjoyed close rapport with President Cristina. He will seek suspension of Venezuela from Mercosur on the ground that it does not meet the democracy clauses of the group's charter. He will extend proactive support to the Venezuelan opposition. Macri cannot afford to displease President Dilma Rouseff too much since Brazil is the largest trading partner with lot of mutual investment and stake. He will, however, shake up Mercosur which is stuck with introvert and outdated protectionist mindset. Macri promises to move closer to the countries of Pacific Alliance (Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico) which is perceived as a rival to the Brazil-lead Mercosur. Macri's approach to China will be more calibrated unlike President Cristina who wooed China desperately for financial help. 

Macri will open up to US with which the Kirchners had uneasy relations. The Americans had kept Argentina at arms length after Nestor Kirchner joined hands with Chavez during the 2005 Summit of the Americas and killed the American proposal to establish a hemispheric Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA).  President Cristina craved for a White House invitation to visit  but the Americans refused.  

Although President Cristina flaunted Argentina's G-20 membership, the country was not taken seriously  due to the huge gap between her radical rhetoric and the reality on the ground. But under Macri, the country will get a higher profile in the global stage, as it did under President Menem. 

Macri will certainly continue Cristina government's policy of friendly ties and cooperation with India. Conscious of the importance of India as a major market for Argentine exports and as an emerging global power, Macri had visited India in 2010 to get a feel of the country. He spoke warmly about India when he inaugurated the TCS global delivery centre in Buenos Aires in 2009. 

Macri is on the left side of Ramadorai

The Indian exporters and companies with investment in Argentina are excited about the opening up of the market by Macri. Argentina, which used to be India's third largest trading partner, is now relegated to the sixth rank. India's exports to Argentina is just about half of the exports to Peru, although Argentina's GDP is double that of Peru.

The Argentine verdict is inspiration to the centre-right opposition parties hoping to replace in the next elections the leftist governments in Brazil and Venezuela which are also mired in severe political and economic difficulties. Some western commentators have hastened to pronounce the end of the Left in the region. This is wishful thinking and wrong conclusion. Centre- right governments have also been voted out of power in recent years in Chile and Nicaragua where the Left is back after sitting out in the opposition for some time.The same could happen in Argentina too, if Macri does not deliver. He should remember that the previous centre-right government of Fernando de la Rua was overthrown by mass protests in December 2001 (just two years after coming to power) when it was unable to handle the economic crisis. It is performance which matters more than ideology in the Latin America of today. 

The version published by The Wire on 24 November

http://thewire.in/2015/11/24/an-anti-incumbency-vote-whose-effects-will-be-seen-beyond-argentina-16147/

Guatemala shows the way to fight corruption

The people of Guatemala chose Jimmy Morales as their next President in the elections held on 25 October. They gave Morales, a former TV comedian, an overwhelming 67.44% of the votes. His opponent Sandra Torres got just 32.56%. 

The election result should be seen as a victory for the people of Guatemala in their struggle against corruption and impunity. The Guatemalans have made their voice loud and clear by choosing a political outsider and decisively rejecting the traditional political oligarchy. In fact,  this is the second victory. The people had achieved their first one in September when President Otto Perez was forced to resign and put in jail facing a trial for his involvement in the La Linea (The Line) corruption scandal. His vice president and some senior officials were imprisoned before him. The courageous and continued protests of the people for over six months from April lead to this unprecedented resignation and jailing of a sitting president.

Morales comes from a poor family unlike the previous presidents of the country who were from the oligarchy or military. Until April, when the corruption scandal surfaced, Morales had single digit ratings with no hope of win. He was trailing way behind the candidates of traditional political establishment.  The luck of Morales changed dramatically after the direct implication of President Otto Perez Molina and his vice-president. 

Although he became famous as a comedian, Morales holds University degrees in business administration as well as theology. He joined politics only in 2013 and became the secretary general of National Convergence Front, a small centre-right party. 

Sandra Torres has conceded defeat gracefully wishing the winner success in his mandate. She did not blame the loss on electoral frauds nor did she call for recount, as has happened in some countries. This is a good sign of political realism and maturity in the young democracy of Guatemala, which had suffered military dictatorship and a terrible civil war which ended in 1996.

During the 2008-11 Presidential term of her husband Alvaro Colom, she had cultivated the poor by distributing doles to them like the Argentine Evita. But the goodwill generated by this and her leftist ideology got overtaken by the disgust of the people with the corruption scandal. 

Morales will  formally assume the charge on 14 January. In his victory speech, Morales attached top priority, understandably, to combat corruption. He also needs to tackle the rampant  gang violence which has given a bad name to the country. Besides these immediate concerns, he would have to address the long term issues of poverty, health care and education especially among the native Indians who form over fifty percent of the population. He has to find new ways to raise funds for social expenditure since Guatemala has one of the lowest tax rates and revenue collection. His job is going to be challenging since his party has just 11 members in the 158 member Congress. He has not held any electoral office before and lacks administrative experience. In his campaign speeches, he had given out eccentric suggestions that the teachers should be tagged with GPS devices to monitor their attendance in schools and that every child should get a smart phone. 

What is important is that the protests of the people, the resignation of the President, imprisonment of the President and Vice president, the interim transfer of power and now the election of a political outsider have all taken place peacefully. There was no firing on protestors nor any threat of a military coup. This is especially remarkable in view of the fact that Guatemala is a country with one of the highest rates of crimes and murders.

The success of the Guatemalan people has now become a source of inspiration for other Latin Americans fighting against corruption and impunity. It has raised the hope, confidence and optimism of Latin America which is marching towards a better future.

cafe, cardamom and contrasts in Guatemala

The aroma of cafe and cardamom in the air has been filling my lungs, raising the heart beat and reigniting my passion for Latin America since my arrival in Guatemala early this week. I find the political discussions in the cafes hotter than coffee and spicier than cardamom.  The topic is the contrast between the two candidates for the second round of presidential election to be held on 25 October;  Jimmy Morales  a TV comedian and a political outsider vs Sandra Torres, a former First Lady and political insider. 

Jimmy Morales, who had played the role of a presidential candidate in one of his comedy shows, threw his hat in the ring, in the same way as every Tom, Dick and Trump join the Presidential race in US. He had no chance since the well-known political candidates from the traditional parties and oligarchies were leading in the opinion polls. His luck changed when the politicians got a bad name after the customs scandal which lead to the jailing of the President of the country just before the election. He got the maximum votes in the first round of the elections on 6 September. 

The Guatemalans can't stop laughing, recalling the old spicy jokes of Jimmy Morales.  At the same time, some don't know whether to laugh or cry when Morales seriously repeats his campaign slogan 'ni corrupto ni ladron" (not corrupt nor a thief). Some Guatemalans believe when Morales says, ' for twenty years I have made you laugh. Now I promise I won't let you cry'.

Sandra Torres, on the other hand, had acted out a real life political comedy in the 2011 elections. The Guatemalan constitution prohibits the immediate family members of the President of the country from contesting in the elections to prevent dynastic succession . But Sandra, the wife of the former President Alvaro Colom (2008-11) wanted to succeed her husband and divorced him to circumvent the constitution. She said, ' I am divorcing my husband but I am getting married to the people. I am the only woman to get divorce for her country'. The Guatemalan people, used to  manipulative politicians, thought that she might get her way, with the help of friendly judges. But the supreme court, in a strong show of  independence, disqualified her at that time. Now, of course, she is entitled to contest. 

Guatemala is one of the countries notorious for impunity. Political leaders and military officials have generally got away with corruption and human rights violations. So when the customs scandal involving  the President surfaced in April, many thought that the corrupt would go unpunished this time too. But the investigating agency showed a remarkable courage and made public proof of bribes shared by corrupt officials. The Congress acted swiftly by removing the Presidential immunity forcing him to resign. He was arrested and put in jail immediately.  This was unprecedented and historic. More on this in http://latinamericanaffairs.blogspot.com/2015/09/guatemalan-president-goes-to-jail.html#links

What is even more interesting is that the people have used peaceful protests to bring down the government in Guatemala, a country known for violence and has one of the highest murder rates in the world. The protestors had continued the agitation relentlessly and fearlessly for six months from April to September. When President Perez's supporters tried to prevent the entry of congressmen to vote in the resolution on presidential immunity, the agitators formed a human wall to let the entry of deputies into the Congress building. The success of the courageous Guatemalan people in bringing down a sitting President on corruption charges has made them as heroes for people in other Latin American countries who have been protesting against corrupt governments.

The investigation agencies and the agitating public got crucial support from the courts, the business community and the members of the Congress (including those belonging to President Perez's party) who passed a unanimous resolution withdrawing Presidential immunity. Such collective, united and unprecedented action against a powerful president is a lesson to others in power in the region.

While the contrasts mentioned above are recent, here is a permanent and historic one. Native Indians constitute around sixty percent of the population. But they have been systematically discriminated and kept outside political and economic power since the Spanish colonial days. Around eighty percent of them are poor. Over one hundred thousand Indians were killed and many were tortured and made to disappear during the bloody civil war from 1960 to 1996. The Guatemalan military and right wing death squads were responsible. But the criminal perpetrators have got away. The Indians are yet to get justice, democratic inclusion and opportunities for development. They have been inspired by Evo Morales, a native Indian President of Bolivia since 2006 and his success in emancipating and empowering the Indians. But Guatemala has not got so far any Indian leader of the calibre of Morales. Rigoberta Menchu, the Guatemalan Indian woman activist for the rights of Indians and who won Nobel Prize in 1992, contested the elections in 2007 and 2011 but with poor and discouraging results.

Guatemala has the biggest economy in Central America but the contrast between the rich and poor are glaring. Two percent of the population control over 75% of the cultivable land. The government collects one of the lowest taxes in the world and spends the least on poverty-alleviation, health care and education. However, since 2008 the government has initiated a conditional cash transfer programme called as " mi familia progresa' (my family progress) to provide financial handout to the poor. Sandra Torres ran this programme and used it to create a constituency of the poor, as was done by Evita of Argentina.

The small Guatemala has beaten the big India to become the largest producer and exporter of Cardamom. In 2014-15 Guatemala produced 30,000 tons against India's 20,000 tons. The Indian cardamom producers complain that they are being hurt by illegal import of low cost Guatemalan cardamom sometimes.  While India has been a cardamom exporter for several hundred years, Guatemala started production after the first world war when a German coffee planter brought the Indian seeds to Guatemala. The Guatemalans export almost all their cardamom production since the local consumption is insignificant, unlike India which consumes a major part of the production.

Here is something India, the land of many political dynasties, could learn from the young Guatemalan democracy.  Article 186 of the Guatemalan constitution prohibits the President's relatives ' within four degrees of consanguinity and second degree in-laws' from contesting for Presidential post. The Indian democracy would certainly become more inclusive and better if the constitution is amended to include this article.